English ⚽ Bundesliga 🕒 12 Sept 2026
Our tip
FSV Mainz 05 to win
Odds
2.30
LostResult
1-3Final score
-1.00uProfit
45%Pre-match conf.
+11.11%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Unibet (NL)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Mainz are the shortest-priced side at 2.30 (about 43-44 percent implied), making them modest favourites over Frankfurt at 3.37 (about 30 percent).
02
The draw at 3.86 implies roughly 26 percent, keeping the three-way market fairly tight and not heavily skewed to one outcome.
03
The Over 2.5 goals price of 1.66 implies close to 60 percent, essentially matching the model's own 59 percent estimate, which produces a small negative edge of -1.54 percent.
04
No match-result selection cleared the site's value-pick threshold, indicating the head-to-head market is priced close to the model's own assessment.
Team form
FM0 FSV Mainz 05 WLWDW
19 Sept 26 @ M'gladbach 4-3
12 Sept 26 vs Frankfurt 1-3
6 Sept 26 @ HSV 5-0
29 Aug 26 vs SC Paderborn 0-0
16 May 26 @ Heidenheim 2-0
EF Eintracht Frankfurt DWLDD
19 Sept 26 vs Freiburg 2-2
12 Sept 26 @ Mainz 3-1
6 Sept 26 vs Augsburg 1-4
29 Aug 26 @ Union Berlin 3-3
16 May 26 vs Stuttgart 2-2
Head-to-head: FSV Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt
Full H2H history → L 12 Sept 26
Mainz 1-3 FrankfurtBundesliga
W 22 Mar 26
Mainz 2-1 FrankfurtBundesliga
L 9 Nov 25
Frankfurt 1-0 MainzBundesliga
W/D/L shown from FSV Mainz 05's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt: pre-match preview
Mainz 05 host Eintracht Frankfurt in a Bundesliga fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Best available prices show Mainz at 2.30, which implies a win probability of roughly 43-44 percent, while Frankfurt's 3.37 points to around 30 percent. The draw, priced at 3.86, sits near 26 percent, keeping all three outcomes within realistic reach and suggesting the market sees this as a fairly open contest rather than a one-sided affair. Away from the result market, the model's featured angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.66, implying a bookmaker probability near 60 percent against the model's own 59 percent read, a razor-thin gap that lands just on the negative side of value. No result-market selections cleared the site's value threshold this week, so the goals total is the only actionable lean drawn from the numbers.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.66, but the -1.54 percent edge shows it is essentially a fair-value line rather than a clear market mismatch. It's a reasonable, low-conviction lean rather than a strong edge, and stake sizing should reflect that modest confidence.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-3, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
W 12 Sept 26
Over 3.0 goalsfinal score 1-3
1.92 +0.92u Upcoming Bundesliga fixtures
All Bundesliga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:30 | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim | 1.81 | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Augsburg v Bayern Munich | 11.50 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Elversberg | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.15 | 3.96 | 2.35 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | 4.90 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Bundesliga standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?+
Our tip was FSV Mainz 05 to win at odds of 2.30.
Who is the betting favourite for Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?+
Mainz 05 are the favourites on price, at 2.30 with the best available odds, which implies a win probability of roughly 43-44 percent. Frankfurt at 3.37 implies about 30 percent, so Mainz are favoured but not overwhelmingly.
What are the odds on the draw in this Bundesliga fixture?+
The best available draw price is 3.86, which implies an approximate 26 percent chance according to the market, keeping the outcome realistically in play alongside both teams' win chances.
Is there a value bet for Mainz vs Frankfurt?+
No match-result selection cleared the site's value threshold for this fixture. The one highlighted angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.66, though its -1.54 percent edge means it is close to fair value rather than a standout value pick.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 1-3 (-1.00u at flat stakes).