Premier League · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Fulham are priced at 1.62, implying a market probability of about 62 percent for a home win in this Premier League clash.
Hull City's 5.96 price implies only around 17 percent, but the model's fair probability of 21 percent gives it a notable 22.32 percent edge over the market price.
The draw at 4.32 implies roughly 23 percent, while the model's fair estimate of 25 percent produces an 8.44 percent edge, making it the second value pick.
The recommended bet, Over 2.5 goals at 1.74, carries 57 percent implied confidence but shows a slight negative edge of 1.5 percent versus the model's fair value.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City to win | 5.96 | +22.1% | 20% | 67 |
| Draw (X) | 4.32 | +9.6% | 25% | 62 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FUL | X | 2 · HC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 4.32 | 5.96 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.58 | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| Tipico | 1.60 | 4.30 | 4.90 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.55 | 4.10 | 5.20 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.54 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Fulham host Hull City in a Premier League fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Best available odds of 1.62 on a Fulham win imply a probability of roughly 62 percent, compared with just under 17 percent for a Hull City victory at 5.96 and about 23 percent for the draw at 4.32. That gap points to a comfortable market expectation for the home side, though nothing in football is settled before kickoff. Away from the result market, the model's featured angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.74, carrying an implied confidence of 57 percent, suggesting the market and model broadly agree goals are likely, even if the edge on that price is marginally negative. Elsewhere, the numbers flag some value in the longer-priced outcomes, with Hull City and the draw both showing positive edges against the model's fair-price estimates.
Verdict: The market strongly favours Fulham, but the recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.74, backed by 57 percent model confidence despite a small negative edge. It is a reasonable, moderate-risk option rather than a standout value bet, and stakes should be sized with normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.74, with a 57% confidence rating.
Fulham are clear favourites, priced at 1.62, which implies a market probability of about 62 percent for a home win.
The draw is available at 4.32, implying roughly a 23 percent chance, though the model's fair estimate of 25 percent suggests slight value at that price.
According to the data, Hull City's 5.96 price implies about 17 percent, while the model's fair probability is 21 percent, producing a 22.32 percent edge, the largest value gap in this match.
Fulham vs Hull City takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Premier League.
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