Serie A · Sat · 13:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Fiorentina are priced as favourites at 2.5, implying close to 40% win probability, the shortest of the three match-result outcomes
Genoa's 3.27 and the draw's 3.45 are tightly bunched, implying probabilities of about 30.6% and 29% respectively, suggesting the market sees a competitive game
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.08 carries an implied probability of roughly 48%, closely matching the model's own 47% confidence reading
The value edge on the Over 2.5 pick is slightly negative at -1.53%, indicating the odds do not currently offer a clear pricing advantage over the model's estimate
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.0% | 7.72 |
| 0-1 | 10.8% | 9.29 |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | 9.59 |
| 0-0 | 8.7% | 11.55 |
| 1-2 | 8.1% | 12.42 |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | 12.82 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.20 and 1.24. These six scorelines cover 59% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Genoa's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GEN | X | 2 · FIO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.25 | 3.48 | 2.38 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.16 | 3.38 | 2.31 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| Pinnacle | 3.16 | 3.36 | 2.29 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Genoa host Fiorentina at Serie A level in a fixture where the betting market leans toward the visitors without making them overwhelming favourites. Fiorentina's best price of 2.5 implies a win probability of roughly 40%, while Genoa's 3.27 corresponds to about 30.6%, and the draw at 3.45 sits close behind at roughly 29%. That spread points to a competitive contest on paper rather than a lopsided one. Away from the match-result market, our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 2.08 as its recommended angle, translating to an implied probability near 48%. The model's own confidence reading sits at 47%, essentially matching that implied figure, and the calculated value edge is slightly negative at -1.53%, meaning the price is not offering a clear statistical advantage. It's a fixture worth watching through the goals market rather than expecting a firm result outcome.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 2.08 aligns closely with the model's 47% confidence, but the negative -1.53% edge means there is no statistical advantage baked into the price. It is a reasonable, moderate-risk consideration rather than a standout value opportunity, and bankroll discipline is advised as with any selection.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | AC Milan v Lecce | 1.26 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:00 | Inter Milan v Parma | 1.14 | 10.60 | 22.00 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Napoli v Frosinone | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.50 |
| 11 Oct 10:30 | Como v AS Roma | 2.64 | 3.67 | 2.88 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lecce v Bologna | 4.21 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lazio v Monza | 1.77 | 3.81 | 5.40 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Sassuolo v AC Milan | 4.58 | 3.93 | 1.85 |
| 11 Oct 18:45 | Cagliari v Juventus | 6.50 | 4.25 | 1.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Milan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.07, with a 48% confidence rating.
Fiorentina are the market favourites at a best price of 2.5, implying roughly a 40% chance of victory, ahead of Genoa (3.27, about 30.6%) and the draw (3.45, about 29%).
The best available draw price is 3.45, which implies a probability of approximately 29%.
The model's flagged pick is Over 2.5 goals at 2.08, but the calculated value edge is slightly negative at -1.53%, so no clear statistical value edge is identified for this match at these prices.
Genoa vs Fiorentina takes place Sat · 13:00 in the Serie A.
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