English ⚽ Liga MX 🕒 22 Aug 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
2.38
LostResult
5-2Final score
-1.00uProfit
45%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Unibet (SE)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Guadalajara's 1.49 price implies roughly a 67% chance of victory, making them a strong favourite over Tijuana.
02
Tijuana at 6.0 carry only about a 17% implied probability, reflecting a wide gap between the two sides on the odds.
03
The draw is priced at 4.4, around a 23% implied chance, sitting between the two match-result outcomes.
04
Over 2.5 goals at 1.52 shows a negative value edge of -6.64%, so the price offers no market-beating margin despite the 61% implied confidence.
Team form
GUA Guadalajara DWWWW
20 Sept 26 @ América 2-2
14 Sept 26 vs Pumas 3-0
5 Sept 26 @ Atlético San Luis 3-0
23 Aug 26 vs Tijuana 5-2
17 Aug 26 @ Santos Laguna 1-0
TIJ Tijuana LLWD
12 Sept 26 vs Querétaro 0-1
23 Aug 26 @ Guadalajara 2-5
17 Aug 26 vs Cruz Azul 2-1
1 Aug 26 @ Atlético San Luis 0-0
Head-to-head: Guadalajara v Tijuana
W 23 Aug 26
Guadalajara 5-2 TijuanaLiga MX
W/D/L shown from Guadalajara's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Guadalajara vs Tijuana: pre-match preview
Guadalajara host Tijuana in this Liga MX fixture as clear favourites, and the market leaves little doubt about the lean. At a best price of 1.49, Guadalajara are priced around a 67% implied chance of taking all three points. Tijuana, by contrast, sit out at 6.0, which translates to roughly a 17% implied probability, marking them firmly as the underdog on the numbers. The draw is available at 4.4, implying about a 23% chance of a stalemate. Rather than backing the match result, our model points toward the goals market: Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.52, with a market-implied confidence near 61%. It is worth noting the value edge here reads at -6.64%, meaning the price sits below what our model would consider a genuine edge, so this is a lean based on scoring expectation rather than a flagged value opportunity in this Guadalajara versus Tijuana meeting.
Verdict: The recommended lean is Over 2.5 goals at 1.52, backed by a market-implied confidence near 61%. Be aware the value edge is negative at -6.64%, so this is a modest scoring lean rather than a flagged value play. Stake responsibly and treat it as a moderate-risk selection.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 5-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Liga MX fixtures
All Liga MX tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sept 00:00 | Pachuca v Tijuana | 1.76 | 4.06 | 5.10 |
| 21 Sept 00:00 | Toluca v Santos Laguna | 1.27 | 7.60 | 11.00 |
| 21 Sept 02:10 | Querétaro v León | 2.72 | 3.60 | 2.74 |
| 26 Sept 01:00 | Atlante FC v Monterrey | 3.81 | 3.85 | 1.94 |
| 26 Sept 03:00 | Tijuana v Atlas | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| 26 Sept 23:00 | Cruz Azul v Toluca | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 26 Sept 23:07 | Guadalajara v Querétaro | 1.41 | 4.60 | 6.25 |
| 27 Sept 01:00 | Tigres v Puebla | 1.50 | 4.70 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Guadalajara vs Tijuana?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.38.
Who is the favourite in Guadalajara vs Tijuana?+
Guadalajara are the favourites at a best price of 1.49, which implies roughly a 67% chance of victory. Tijuana are the outsiders at 6.0, around a 17% implied probability.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is priced at 4.4 with 1xBet, implying approximately a 23% chance of the match ending level.
Is there any value in this match?+
Our model recommends Over 2.5 goals at 1.52, but the value edge reads -6.64%, meaning the price is below what would count as a genuine edge. No value picks cleared our threshold for this fixture.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 5-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).