Austrian Bundesliga · Sun · 12:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Hartberg are priced as favourites at 2.34, implying roughly 43 percent win probability, ahead of Austria Lustenau's 35 percent from odds of 2.88.
The draw at 3.42 implies close to 29 percent, keeping all three outcomes within a relatively tight band typical of a competitive domestic fixture.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.92 carries a market-implied probability near 52 percent, above the model's own 49 percent confidence reading.
The stated value edge on this selection is negative at -6.57 percent, meaning the data does not currently support it as a value bet by the site's own metric.
No other value picks versus market consensus were identified above the site's threshold for this fixture.
| Bookmaker | 1 · HAR | X | 2 · AL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.33 | 3.40 | 2.89 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.88 |
| 888sport | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.88 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.21 | 3.40 | 2.85 |
| Suprabets | 2.18 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.10 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Hartberg host Austria Lustenau in an Austrian Bundesliga meeting where the bookmakers lean toward the home side. Best odds have Hartberg at 2.34, which implies a win probability of roughly 43 percent, while Austria Lustenau at 2.88 implies about 35 percent, and the draw at 3.42 sits near 29 percent. That spread points to a moderately favoured host without a dominant edge, since the gap between the two match-result prices is fairly narrow once overround is accounted for. Rather than picking a side in the win market, our model's recommendation centres on the goals market, flagging Under 2.5 goals at 1.92 as the featured angle for this fixture. That price implies a break-even probability of about 52 percent, and it is worth noting from the outset that the model's own confidence reading of 49 percent sits below that threshold.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals selection at 1.92 is the only recommendation generated for this match, but its negative value edge and sub-50 percent model confidence mean it should be treated as a speculative angle rather than a strong-conviction pick. Bettors considering it should size stakes cautiously and view it within a balanced bankroll approach.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Ried | 2.60 | 3.42 | 2.53 |
| 10 Oct 17:30 | Austria Wien v Sturm Graz | 3.40 | 3.62 | 2.05 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 11 Oct 15:00 | LASK v Rapid Wien | 1.80 | 3.84 | 3.94 |
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.29 | 5.80 | 8.75 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.05 | 5.30 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol | 2.34 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.92, with a 49% confidence rating.
Hartberg are the favourites according to the best available odds, priced at 2.34 which implies roughly a 43 percent win probability, compared with Austria Lustenau's 35 percent implied from odds of 2.88.
The best available draw odds are 3.42, which implies a probability of close to 29 percent.
The site's model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 1.92 as its recommended bet, but this comes with a stated negative value edge of -6.57 percent and a model confidence of 49 percent, so it is not flagged as a strong value opportunity; no other selections cleared the value threshold.
Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau takes place Sun · 12:30 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
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