English ⚽ Eredivisie 🕒 13 Sept 2026
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Odds
1.80
WonResult
0-0Final score
+0.80uProfit
57%Pre-match conf.
-7.22%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Heerenveen are priced at 1.85, implying roughly 54% win probability and clear favourite status over Telstar and the draw
02
SC Telstar's 4.0 price implies a 25% chance, but the model's fair probability of 27% suggests a 6.56% edge on the away side
03
The draw at 4.2 implies about 23.8%, against a fair probability of 25%, giving a 6.03% edge according to the model
04
The Over 3.5 goals recommendation at 2.3 carries 42% implied confidence but a slight negative value edge of -2.91%, meaning it is not flagged as a clear-cut price advantage
Team form
HEE Heerenveen WDLDL
19 Sept 26 @ Sparta 4-0
13 Sept 26 vs Telstar 0-0
6 Sept 26 vs AZ 2-3
30 Aug 26 @ Willem II 2-2
22 Aug 26 vs Zwolle 0-2
ST SC Telstar LDLDL
20 Sept 26 @ AZ 0-2
13 Sept 26 @ Heerenveen 0-0
9 Sept 26 @ Twente 0-1
6 Sept 26 vs Cambuur 2-2
30 Aug 26 vs Ajax 0-4
Head-to-head: Heerenveen v SC Telstar
Full H2H history → D 13 Sept 26
Heerenveen 0-0 TelstarEredivisie
W 14 Mar 26
Heerenveen 3-0 TelstarEredivisie
W 19 Oct 25
Telstar 2-3 HeerenveenEredivisie
W/D/L shown from Heerenveen's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Heerenveen vs SC Telstar: pre-match preview
Heerenveen host SC Telstar in an Eredivisie fixture where the bookmakers lean heavily toward the home side. At 1.85 for a Heerenveen win, the market implies a win probability of roughly 54%, making them clear favourites over both the draw (priced at 4.2, implying about 23.8%) and an SC Telstar victory (4.0, implying 25%). Those numbers point to a game the market expects Heerenveen to control, though not overwhelmingly so, given the overround built into all three prices. Away from the match-result market, the model's headline suggestion is an Over 3.5 goals play at 2.3, reflecting an expectation of an open, goal-heavy contest rather than a cagey low-scoring affair. That angle carries a modest negative edge against the model's own fair-value estimate, so it should be treated as a directional read on game state rather than a mispriced certainty.
Verdict: The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.3 reflects a view that this fixture could produce plenty of goals, but the model's own numbers show a small negative edge, so it is a moderate-risk selection rather than a confident value play. Bettors should size stakes cautiously and treat it as one option among several.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 0-0, for a flat-stake return of +0.80 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Eredivisie standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 19 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +18 | 17 |
| 3 | PSV | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +14 | 16 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +8 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +12 | 14 |
| 6 | Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 11 |
| 8 | Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Go Ahead | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Sparta | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 13 | Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
| 18 | Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -14 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Heerenveen vs SC Telstar?+
Our tip was Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.80.
Who is favourite in the Heerenveen vs SC Telstar match?+
Heerenveen are the clear market favourites at 1.85, which implies roughly a 54% chance of a home win, well ahead of the prices for Telstar and the draw.
What are the odds for a draw in this Eredivisie fixture?+
The draw is priced at 4.2, implying an approximate 23.8% probability, though the model's fair-value estimate of 25% suggests a small 6.03% edge on this outcome.
Is there value on SC Telstar to win as underdogs?+
According to the model, yes to a degree: Telstar's best price of 4.0 implies a 25% chance, but the model's fair probability of 27% points to a 6.56% edge, making them the largest value pick in the match-result market.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 0-0 (+0.80u at flat stakes).