Scottish Premiership · kicked off 19 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Hibernian's 1.82 price implies roughly a 55 percent win probability, the strongest anchor point in this market.
Aberdeen's 4.4 price implies only about a 23 percent chance, reflecting a substantial gap between the two sides in the eyes of the market.
The draw is priced at 3.85, implying close to 26 percent, keeping it as a live alternative to a straightforward home win.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.75 carries a market-implied confidence of 55 percent but shows a negative value edge of -3.32 percent, meaning the model does not currently see this as a clear value opportunity.
W/D/L shown from Hibernian's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Hibernian host Aberdeen in a Scottish Premiership fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Hibernian are priced at 1.82, which implies a win probability of roughly 55 percent, making them the clear favourites on paper. Aberdeen sit at 4.4, translating to an implied chance of about 23 percent, while the draw at 3.85 carries an implied probability near 26 percent. Those numbers point to a contest the market expects Hibernian to control, though the draw price shows a competitive edge case is still very much in play. Away from the match-result market, the model's featured angle here is Over 2.5 goals at 1.75, a goals-market lean rather than a result-based selection, giving bettors an alternative way to engage with the fixture beyond simply backing a winner.
Verdict: The market frames Hibernian as clear favourites against Aberdeen, with the draw carrying a meaningful chance too. The flagged Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.75 reflects a roughly 55 percent implied outcome, but its negative edge suggests it is not a standout value play. Treat it as a moderate-risk goals angle rather than a strong recommendation, and stake accordingly.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-1, for a flat-stake return of +1.16 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.16.
Hibernian are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.82, which implies a win probability of around 55 percent, compared to Aberdeen's 4.4 price implying about 23 percent.
The draw is priced at 3.85, which implies an approximate 26 percent chance of the match ending level.
No standout value picks against the match-result market were identified. The model's featured angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.75, though this carries a negative value edge of -3.32 percent, so it should be viewed cautiously rather than as a strong value opportunity.
The tip won — final score 1-1 (+1.16u at flat stakes).
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