Scottish Premiership · kicked off 15 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Hibernian's 1.5 price implies close to a 67 percent chance of victory, the dominant figure in this match-result market.
Kilmarnock's 6.0 odds translate to roughly 17 percent implied probability, positioning them as significant underdogs on paper.
The draw at 4.63 sits around 22 percent, offering the second most likely single outcome according to the market.
The recommended Over 3.25 goals bet at 2.03 carries a negative value edge of -4.04 percent, indicating the model does not currently see it as a strong value play despite flagging it.
W/D/L shown from Hibernian's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Hibernian go into this Scottish Premiership meeting with Kilmarnock as clear favourites according to the betting market. Best odds of 1.5 on a home win imply a probability of roughly 67 percent, a strong figure that leaves comparatively little room for an upset. Kilmarnock, priced at 6.0, are given only around 17 percent by the same market, while the draw at 4.63 sits at about 22 percent implied probability. Together these prices reflect a one-sided expectation rather than a tightly contested fixture. Away from the match-result market, our model flags Over 3.25 goals at 2.03 as its recommended angle, though it comes with a market-implied confidence of 47 percent and a negative value edge of -4.04 percent, meaning the model does not see this as a clean value opportunity but rather a plausible outcome worth noting for context.
Verdict: The market strongly favours Hibernian, leaving Kilmarnock and the draw as higher-risk alternatives. The highlighted Over 3.25 goals selection at 2.03 is plausible but the model's own -4.04 percent edge suggests it is not a standout value bet, so bettors should treat it as a moderate-risk option rather than a confident lean.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 0-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our tip was Over 3.0 goals at odds of 1.81.
Hibernian are strong favourites, with best odds of 1.5 implying about a 67 percent chance of winning, compared with Kilmarnock's 6.0 price implying roughly 17 percent.
The best available draw price is 4.63, which implies a probability of around 22 percent.
No standout value picks were identified above threshold; the model's recommended Over 3.25 goals bet at 2.03 actually carries a slightly negative edge of -4.04 percent, so it should be viewed cautiously rather than as a confident value play.
The tip lost — final score 0-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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