English ⚽ 2. Bundesliga 🕒 14 Aug 2026
Our tip
FC St. Pauli to win
Odds
1.69
LostResult
2-2Final score
-1.00uProfit
78%Pre-match conf.
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Pinnacle
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Holstein Kiel are the favourites at 2.35 (about 43% implied), ahead of FC St. Pauli at 3.0 (about 33%).
02
The pricing gap between the two sides is fairly narrow, suggesting the market views this as a close encounter.
03
The draw is quoted at 3.6, implying roughly 28% and reflecting a realistic chance of a share of the points.
04
Our Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.77 shows a negative value edge of -5.44%, so it falls below our threshold and is a lean rather than a strong value call.
Team form
HK Holstein Kiel DLDDD
19 Sept 26 vs VfL Osnabrück 1-1
13 Sept 26 @ 1. FC Heidenheim 0-1
5 Sept 26 vs 1. FC Nürnberg 2-2
14 Aug 26 vs FC St. Pauli 2-2
8 Aug 26 @ SV Darmstadt 98 2-2
FSP FC St. Pauli DWDDD
20 Sept 26 @ FC Energie Cottbus 1-1
12 Sept 26 vs VfL Wolfsburg 1-0
4 Sept 26 @ Arminia Bielefeld 2-2
14 Aug 26 @ Holstein Kiel 2-2
9 Aug 26 vs Greuther Fürth 1-1
Head-to-head: Holstein Kiel v FC St. Pauli
D 14 Aug 26
Holstein Kiel 2-2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
W/D/L shown from Holstein Kiel's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli: pre-match preview
This 2. Bundesliga clash sees Holstein Kiel host FC St. Pauli, and the market leans modestly towards the home side. Kiel are priced at 2.35 with Tipico, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 43%, while St. Pauli sit at 3.0 (Coolbet) for about 33%. The draw is quoted at 3.6, or around 28% implied. Those figures point to a contest the bookmakers see as competitive rather than one-sided, with Kiel holding a slight edge rather than a commanding one. Our model steers away from the match-result market and instead flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.77 with Tipico, carrying market-implied confidence of about 53%. Notably, the value edge on that pick reads negative at -5.44%, so it does not clear our value threshold. It is offered as a directional lean on goals rather than a strong quantitative recommendation, and bettors should size stakes with that caveat firmly in mind.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.77, backed by around 53% implied confidence in more than two strikes. However, the negative value edge means this is a low-conviction lean, not a value bet. Treat it cautiously and stake responsibly, as the market offers no clear edge here.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?+
Our tip was FC St. Pauli to win at odds of 1.69.
Who is the favourite in Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?+
Holstein Kiel are the favourites at 2.35, implying roughly a 43% chance. FC St. Pauli are priced at 3.0, or about 33%.
What are the odds for a draw?+
The draw is available at 3.6 with Coolbet, which implies approximately a 28% probability of the match ending level.
Is there any betting value in this fixture?+
No pick cleared our value threshold. The Over 2.5 goals lean at 1.77 actually shows a negative edge of -5.44%, so it is a low-conviction suggestion rather than identified value.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 2-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).