Premier League · Sun · 13:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Everton's 2.1 price implies close to 48 percent win probability, comfortably the strongest single outcome in the match-result market.
Hull City at 3.86 implies around 26 percent, making them clear underdogs according to the market.
The draw at 3.56 (about 28 percent implied) is priced tighter than Hull's win chance, reflecting a competitive if favourite-leaning matchup.
The Over 2.5 goals selection at 2.27 carries a small model-identified edge of roughly 2.23 percent, the only pick flagged above the value threshold.
| Bookmaker | 1 · HC | X | 2 · EVE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.84 | 3.54 | 2.12 |
| Betfair | 3.85 | 3.45 | 2.14 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.80 | 3.30 | 2.12 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.80 | 3.30 | 2.12 |
| Coolbet | 3.85 | 3.37 | 2.07 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.74 | 3.45 | 2.06 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Hull City host Everton in a Premier League fixture where the betting market gives a clear edge to the visitors. Everton are priced at 2.1 for the win, which implies a probability of roughly 48 percent, while Hull City's 3.86 price points to around 26 percent, and the draw at 3.56 sits close behind at about 28 percent. Those numbers suggest the market sees this as a moderately one-sided contest rather than a genuine toss-up, though the gap between draw and home win probabilities is narrow enough to keep the game competitive on paper. Away from the match-result market, our model flags value in the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 2.27, a price implying roughly 44 percent, against a modelled confidence of 45 percent and a modest edge of just over 2 percent.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.27 offers a slim statistical edge rather than a strong signal, with model confidence at 45 percent against an implied 44 percent. It is a reasonable consideration for goal-market bettors, but the modest edge means this remains a moderate-risk selection, not a high-conviction one.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
| 11 Oct 15:30 | Liverpool v Manchester City | 3.10 | 3.85 | 2.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.81, with a 55% confidence rating.
Everton are the market favourites, priced at 2.1, which implies a win probability of roughly 48 percent, compared to Hull City's 3.86 and the draw's 3.56.
The draw is available at 3.56, implying an approximate 28 percent chance according to the odds provided.
The main match-result odds show no value picks above the site's threshold, but the model does flag Over 2.5 goals at 2.27 as carrying a small edge of about 2.23 percent.
Hull City vs Everton takes place Sun · 13:00 in the Premier League.
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