English ⚽ Allsvenskan 🕒 13 Sept 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
2.06
WonResult
1-0Final score
+1.06uProfit
50%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Matchbook
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Elfsborg's 2.04 price implies close to 49 percent win probability, the strongest single outcome priced in this match.
02
Kalmar FF's 4.14 price implies around 24 percent, slightly under the model's fair probability of 25 percent, producing a modest 4.53 percent edge.
03
The draw is priced at 3.69, implying roughly 27 percent, keeping it a realistic secondary outcome alongside the two match-result options.
04
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.92 has a 50 percent implied confidence but a negative 3.5 percent edge, meaning the price does not clearly exceed the model's assessed fair value.
Team form
IE IF Elfsborg WWLDW
20 Sept 26 @ Djurgardens IF 2-1
13 Sept 26 vs Kalmar FF 1-0
6 Sept 26 @ IF Brommapojkarna 1-2
23 Aug 26 @ IFK Goteborg 1-1
14 Aug 26 vs Västerås SK 3-0
KF Kalmar FF LLLDL
20 Sept 26 vs BK Hacken 0-5
13 Sept 26 @ IF Elfsborg 0-1
7 Sept 26 vs Djurgardens IF 0-1
23 Aug 26 @ Västerås SK 0-0
16 Aug 26 vs Hammarby IF 0-4
Head-to-head: IF Elfsborg v Kalmar FF
W 13 Sept 26
IF Elfsborg 1-0 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
W/D/L shown from IF Elfsborg's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF: pre-match preview
IF Elfsborg welcome Kalmar FF in an Allsvenskan clash where the betting market leans firmly toward the hosts. Elfsborg's best price of 2.04 implies a win probability of just under 49 percent, making them the clear favourites on paper. Kalmar, at 4.14, are priced at roughly 24 percent, while the draw sits at 3.69, translating to about 27 percent. Those numbers suggest the bookmakers see this as a contest Elfsborg should win more often than not, but with enough uncertainty that both the draw and an away upset remain live outcomes. Away from the match-result market, the model's featured angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.92, carrying a 50 percent implied confidence level. It's worth noting this selection shows a slight negative edge against the model's own fair-value calculation, so it should be treated as a competitive price rather than a standout value play.
Verdict: Elfsborg are market favourites, but the numbers point to a competitive fixture rather than a one-sided affair. The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.92 is the model's headline suggestion, though its slightly negative edge means it carries no clear statistical advantage. Kalmar's price offers modest value for those willing to back the underdog. Stake sizes should reflect this uncertainty.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-0, for a flat-stake return of +1.06 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.06.
Who is favourite in Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?+
IF Elfsborg are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.04, which implies a win probability of around 49 percent.
What is the draw priced at for this match?+
The draw is available at 3.69, implying an approximate 27 percent chance according to the market.
Is there value in betting on this fixture?+
Kalmar FF's price of 4.14 shows a modest 4.53 percent edge versus the model's fair probability of 25 percent, making it the closest thing to a value angle. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.92, however, has a slight negative edge despite being highlighted by the model.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 1-0 (+1.06u at flat stakes).