Serie A · Sat · 16:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Inter Milan's 1.16 price implies an 86 percent win probability, making them heavy favourites according to the market.
Parma's 20.0 odds imply only about 5 percent, while the draw at 10.0 implies roughly 10 percent, both reflecting long-shot pricing.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.92 carries a 52 percent implied confidence and a small 0.75 percent value edge over market consensus.
No value picks were flagged elsewhere, indicating the match-result market is currently viewed as efficiently priced relative to the model.
| Bookmaker | 1 · IM | X | 2 · PAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.14 | 10.60 | 20.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.14 | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.14 | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.13 | 9.30 | 18.25 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.13 | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.13 | 9.43 | 16.03 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Inter Milan host Parma at San Siro in a Serie A fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best odds of 1.16 on Inter imply a win probability of roughly 86 percent, a figure that reflects a heavy market consensus rather than any specific team news. Parma, by contrast, are priced at 20.0 for an away win, translating to just 5 percent implied probability, while the draw sits at 10.0, around 10 percent. With the match-result market so one-sided, our model's recommended angle looks elsewhere: Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.92, carrying a market-implied confidence of 52 percent and a modest value edge of 0.75 percent. This suggests the total-goals market may offer marginally better balance between price and probability than backing Inter outright at such short odds.
Verdict: The Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.92 offers a small statistical edge (0.75 percent) with roughly even-money-level confidence (52 percent), making it a measured rather than strong selection. Given Inter's overwhelming favourite status, this goals-market angle is a reasonable alternative, though it still carries meaningful uncertainty and should be sized cautiously.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | AC Milan v Lecce | 1.26 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| 10 Oct 13:00 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 3.25 | 3.48 | 2.45 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Napoli v Frosinone | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.50 |
| 11 Oct 10:30 | Como v AS Roma | 2.64 | 3.67 | 2.88 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lecce v Bologna | 4.21 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lazio v Monza | 1.77 | 3.81 | 5.40 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Sassuolo v AC Milan | 4.58 | 3.93 | 1.85 |
| 11 Oct 18:45 | Cagliari v Juventus | 6.50 | 4.25 | 1.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Milan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 52% confidence rating.
Inter Milan are strong favourites, priced at 1.16, which implies about an 86 percent win probability according to the market.
The draw is priced at 10.0, implying roughly a 10 percent probability based on current market data.
The match-result market shows no value picks above threshold, but the model flags Under 3.5 goals at 1.92 as offering a small 0.75 percent edge with 52 percent implied confidence.
Inter Milan vs Parma takes place Sat · 16:00 in the Serie A.
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