Premier League · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Fulham are the shortest price at 2.44, implying about 41% win probability, the highest of the three outcomes.
Ipswich Town at 3.05 imply roughly a 33% chance, keeping them within reasonable reach of the favourites on paper.
The draw at 3.6 implies close to 28%, a fairly standard figure for a fixture without a dominant favourite.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.07 carries a 48% implied probability but shows a slight negative value edge of -1.48%, meaning it is not priced with a clear edge over the model's own assessment.
| Bookmaker | 1 · IT | X | 2 · FUL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.78 | 3.70 | 2.60 |
| 1xBet | 2.79 | 3.62 | 2.63 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Coolbet | 2.71 | 3.64 | 2.53 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.71 | 3.52 | 2.56 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Fulham head into this Premier League meeting with Ipswich Town as the clear market favourites, priced at 2.44 with the best odds available, which implies a win probability of roughly 41%. Ipswich, at 3.05, are given around a 33% chance, while the draw at 3.6 reflects roughly 28% likelihood according to the same pricing. Those numbers put Fulham ahead but not overwhelmingly so, leaving a competitive spread across all three outcomes. Away from the result market, the highlighted angle for this fixture is the goals total, with Under 2.5 goals priced at 2.07, translating to an implied probability of about 48%. That sits close to what the market itself prices in, meaning the recommended selection is not flagged as strong value but rather a line worth weighing alongside the match-result prices when assessing this Ipswich versus Fulham clash.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 2.07 is the flagged selection, with an implied probability near 48% closely matching the model's own confidence level. The negative value edge suggests no meaningful pricing advantage, so this looks like a fair-value line rather than a standout opportunity, best approached with modest stakes.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
| 11 Oct 15:30 | Liverpool v Manchester City | 3.10 | 3.85 | 2.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.14, with a 46% confidence rating.
Fulham are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.44 compared to 3.05 for Ipswich Town, implying roughly a 41% win probability against 33% for Ipswich.
The draw is priced at 3.6, which implies an approximate 28% chance based on the available match-result odds.
The data shows no value picks above the site's threshold in the match-result market, and the highlighted Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.07 carries a slight negative value edge of -1.48%, so no strong edge is indicated.
Ipswich Town vs Fulham takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Premier League.
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