Ekstraklasa · kicked off 9 Aug 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Jagiellonia are favourites at 2.37 (around 42% implied), but the margin over Widzew at 3.12 (around 32%) is modest.
The draw is priced at 3.4 with Coolbet, implying roughly a 29% chance and reflecting a genuinely open outcome.
The recommended Over 2.25 goals at 1.83 shows a negative value edge of -4.67%, so the market price offers no clear advantage.
No value picks cleared our threshold against market consensus, underlining a fixture priced efficiently by the bookmakers.
W/D/L shown from Jagiellonia Białystok's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Jagiellonia Białystok host Widzew Łódź in the Ekstraklasa, and the market leans towards the home side without treating the outcome as one-sided. Jagiellonia are priced at 2.37 with Pinnacle, which translates to roughly a 42% implied chance, while Widzew sit at 3.12, or about 32%. The draw is quoted at 3.4 with Coolbet, implying near 29%. Those figures point to a contest the bookmakers see as competitive rather than a clear mismatch, with Jagiellonia holding only a moderate edge on home advantage. Our model's attention falls not on the match result but on the goals market, where Over 2.25 goals is available at 1.83 with Pinnacle. That line carries a market-implied confidence of around 52%, though the value edge sits at -4.67%, meaning the price is slightly against you relative to fair value. It is a lean rather than a standout play.
Verdict: The model points to Over 2.25 goals at 1.83, backed by around 52% implied confidence. However, the -4.67% value edge means the price is slightly unfavourable, so treat this as a modest lean rather than a strong recommendation. Stake responsibly and only within your normal limits.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 0-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:15 | Lech Poznań v Radomiak Radom | 1.14 | 10.00 | 28.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip was Jagiellonia Białystok to win at odds of 2.45.
Jagiellonia Białystok are the favourites at 2.37 with Pinnacle, implying about a 42% chance. Widzew Łódź are the outsiders at 3.12, roughly 32%.
The draw is available at 3.4 with Coolbet, which implies close to a 29% chance and reflects a fairly balanced fixture.
No value picks cleared our threshold against market consensus. The recommended Over 2.25 goals at 1.83 actually shows a negative edge of -4.67%, so the value is not in your favour.
The tip lost — final score 0-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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