Scottish Premiership · kicked off 9 Aug 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Celtic's 1.43 price implies roughly a 70% chance of victory, marking them as heavy favourites.
Kilmarnock at 7.75 are given only around a 13% implied probability of a home win.
The draw at 5.1 translates to about a 20% chance, a distant second option behind a Celtic win.
The recommended Over 3.25 goals pick carries a negative value edge of -4.09%, so it does not clear the value threshold.
W/D/L shown from Kilmarnock's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
This Scottish Premiership meeting sees Celtic travel to Kilmarnock as clear favourites in the eyes of the market. At a best price of 1.43, Celtic are priced at roughly a 70% chance of taking all three points, a strong endorsement from bookmakers. Kilmarnock, by contrast, are out at 7.75, implying only around a 13% chance of a home win, while the draw sits at 5.1, or close to 20% in probability terms. The gap between the two sides is substantial and reflected clearly in these odds. Our model's attention turns away from the result and toward the goals market: Over 3.25 goals is available at 1.98 with Pinnacle, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 48%. It is worth noting the value edge here is negative at -4.09%, so this is flagged as an interest pick rather than a strong value play in the Kilmarnock versus Celtic clash.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 3.25 goals at 1.98, roughly a coin-flip proposition at 48% implied confidence. With a negative value edge of -4.09%, this is a modest-interest angle rather than a standout bet. Treat it cautiously and stake within your normal bankroll limits.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-5, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our tip was Under 3.25 goals at odds of 1.97.
Celtic are the clear favourites at 1.43, which implies about a 70% chance of winning. Kilmarnock are outsiders at 7.75.
The draw is priced at 5.1 with Unibet (FR), equating to an implied probability of around 20%.
No pick cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 3.25 goals bet at 1.98 actually shows a negative value edge of -4.09%, so it is an interest angle rather than a strong value play.
The tip lost — final score 1-5 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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