Scottish Premiership · kicked off 19 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Hearts are strongly favoured at 1.82, implying roughly a 55% win probability against Kilmarnock's 21% at 4.65.
The draw is priced at 4.20, translating to an implied probability of about 24%, keeping it competitive with Kilmarnock's own win chances.
The recommended Under 3.0 goals bet at 1.76 carries a 5.94% value edge according to the model, the only pick flagged above the value threshold.
No value picks were identified in the match-result market itself, with all three outcomes reasonably aligned to their implied probabilities.
W/D/L shown from Kilmarnock's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Kilmarnock host Hearts in a Scottish Premiership fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the pecking order. Hearts are priced at 1.82 for the win, which implies a probability of roughly 55%, making them clear favourites heading into Rugby Park. Kilmarnock, at 4.65, are seen as outsiders with an implied chance of around 21%, while the draw at 4.20 sits at about 24%, keeping that outcome firmly in play. Rather than picking a side in the match-result market, our model points to the goals market, recommending Under 3.0 goals at 1.76. This price carries a model-implied confidence of 48% and a calculated value edge of 5.94%, suggesting the total-goals line may offer better relative value than backing either team outright in this Scottish Premiership meeting.
Verdict: The standout angle here is Under 3.0 goals at 1.76, backed by a modest 5.94% value edge and 48% model confidence. It is not a high-certainty selection, and the match-result market offers no flagged value, so this remains a moderate-risk pick best sized conservatively within a balanced betting bankroll.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-1, for a flat-stake return of +0.76 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our tip was Under 3.0 goals at odds of 1.76.
Hearts are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.82, implying an approximate 55% win probability, compared with Kilmarnock at 4.65 for around 21%.
The draw is available at 4.20, which implies a probability of roughly 24%, making it more likely than a Kilmarnock win according to the market.
The match-result market shows no picks above the value threshold, but the model flags Under 3.0 goals at 1.76 as offering a 5.94% edge, making it the notable value angle for this game.
The tip won — final score 1-1 (+0.76u at flat stakes).
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