Scottish Premiership · kicked off 2 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Kilmarnock are the market favourites at 2.5 (around 40% implied), narrowly ahead of St Mirren at 3.0 (around 33%).
The gap between the two sides is slim, reflecting a fixture the market rates as close rather than clear-cut.
The draw is priced at 3.6 with Coolbet, implying roughly a 28% chance and keeping all three outcomes plausible.
Our model rates Kilmarnock at about 43% confidence against a 40% market implied probability, producing a value edge of 6.34%.
W/D/L shown from Kilmarnock's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Kilmarnock host St Mirren in the Scottish Premiership, and the market gives the home side a modest edge. Kilmarnock are priced at 2.5 with 1xBet, which translates to a market-implied probability of around 40%, while St Mirren at 3.0 with Unibet (SE) sit closer to 33%. The draw is available at 3.6 with Coolbet, roughly a 28% implied chance. Those numbers describe a fixture the bookmakers see as competitive rather than one-sided, with Kilmarnock nudged ahead largely on home advantage in the pricing. Our model leans toward Kilmarnock to win at 2.5, assigning a market-implied confidence of about 43% and flagging a value edge of 6.34% against the current line. That points to a small but genuine overlay on the favourite rather than a standout opportunity, so it is best treated as a measured pick within a sensible staking plan.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Kilmarnock to win at 2.5 with 1xBet, supported by a modest 6.34% value edge. This is a low-conviction favourite pick in a tight-looking match, so the risk is moderate. Stake responsibly and treat it as one option among several.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 0-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our tip was Kilmarnock to win at odds of 2.50.
Kilmarnock are the favourites at 2.5, which implies around a 40% chance. St Mirren are priced at 3.0, roughly 33%.
The draw is available at 3.6 with Coolbet, implying approximately a 28% probability. All three outcomes remain realistic based on the pricing.
Our model identifies a small value edge of 6.34% on Kilmarnock to win at 2.5, rating them slightly higher at about 43% confidence. No other selections cleared our value threshold.
The tip lost — final score 0-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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