Austrian Bundesliga · Sun · 15:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
LASK are priced at 1.8, implying roughly a 55.6% win probability, the strongest signal in this market
Rapid Wien's 3.94 price implies about 25.4%, while the draw at 3.84 implies close to 26%, keeping those two outcomes tightly bunched
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.19 carries a model confidence of 43%, below the 45.7% implied by the odds, producing a negative value edge of -6.55%
No side of the match-result market or additional goals markets returned a value pick above the site's threshold
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.08 |
| 2-0 | 9.6% | 10.42 |
| 1-1 | 9.4% | 10.66 |
| 1-0 | 9.1% | 11.01 |
| 3-1 | 7.0% | 14.29 |
| 3-0 | 6.8% | 14.77 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.12 and 1.03. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LAS | X | 2 · RW |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.80 | 3.84 | 3.94 |
| 888sport | 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.75 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| Suprabets | 1.75 | 3.60 | 3.56 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.70 | 3.75 | 3.55 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
LASK host Rapid Wien in an Austrian Bundesliga clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best odds of 1.8 on LASK imply a win probability of roughly 55.6%, well ahead of Rapid Wien at 3.94 (about 25.4%) and the draw at 3.84 (about 26%). Those numbers point to a fixture the market sees as moderately one-sided, with LASK the clear favourite but not an overwhelming one, given the draw and away price aren't far apart. Away from the match-result market, the model highlights Over 3.5 goals at 2.19 as its recommended angle, though it comes with a market-implied confidence of 43% and a negative value edge of -6.55%, meaning the price doesn't clearly favour backing it over the model's own estimate. No additional value picks cleared the site's threshold for this game.
Verdict: LASK are the clear market favourites, but the recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.19 shows a negative value edge, meaning the price doesn't clearly outweigh the model's own estimate of the outcome. It's a speculative angle rather than a strong value play, so stake sizing should reflect that added uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Ried | 2.60 | 3.42 | 2.53 |
| 10 Oct 17:30 | Austria Wien v Sturm Graz | 3.40 | 3.62 | 2.05 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Hartberg v Austria Lustenau | 2.33 | 3.40 | 2.89 |
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.29 | 5.80 | 8.75 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.05 | 5.30 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol | 2.34 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.19, with a 43% confidence rating.
LASK are the market favourites at odds of 1.8, which implies roughly a 55.6% chance of victory, well ahead of Rapid Wien and the draw.
The best available draw price is 3.84, implying an approximate 26% probability, only slightly higher than Rapid Wien's implied win chance.
The model's tracked pick is Over 3.5 goals at 2.19, but it carries a negative value edge of -6.55% and 43% confidence, so it isn't flagged as a clear value opportunity; no other picks cleared the site's threshold.
LASK vs Rapid Wien takes place Sun · 15:00 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
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