English ⚽ Premier League 🕒 14 Sept 2026
Our tip
Leeds United to win
Odds
2.59
WonResult
4-1Final score
+1.59uProfit
42%Pre-match conf.
+5.71%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Leeds United are priced marginally shorter than Newcastle United, 2.59 versus 2.82, putting them as slight market favourites.
02
Implied probabilities sit close together: roughly 38.6% for Leeds, 35.5% for Newcastle, and 27.5% for the draw, reflecting a tightly matched contest.
03
The model's 42% confidence in a Leeds win exceeds the market's implied 38.6%, generating the quoted 8.95% value edge.
04
No other match-result selection met the value threshold, meaning the Leeds win is the only price flagged as offering an edge over the market consensus.
Team form
LU Leeds United DWDDW
20 Sept 26 vs Crystal Palace 0-0
14 Sept 26 vs Newcastle 4-1
5 Sept 26 @ Brighton Hove 1-1
30 Aug 26 vs Brentford 1-1
22 Aug 26 @ Nottingham 1-0
NU Newcastle United WLDWD
19 Sept 26 vs Hull City 2-1
14 Sept 26 @ Leeds United 1-4
5 Sept 26 vs Bournemouth 2-2
29 Aug 26 @ Tottenham 2-0
23 Aug 26 vs Liverpool 2-2
Head-to-head: Leeds United v Newcastle United
Full H2H history → W 14 Sept 26
Leeds United 4-1 NewcastlePremier League
L 7 Jan 26
Newcastle 4-3 Leeds UnitedPremier League
D 30 Aug 25
Leeds United 0-0 NewcastlePremier League
W/D/L shown from Leeds United's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Leeds United vs Newcastle United: pre-match preview
Leeds United host Newcastle United in a Premier League fixture where the betting market leans only slightly toward the home side. Best odds of 2.59 on Leeds imply a win probability of roughly 38.6%, just ahead of Newcastle at 2.82 (about 35.5%), with the draw priced at 3.64 (around 27.5%). That narrow gap points to a genuinely competitive match rather than a clear favourite. Our model flags Leeds United to win at 2.59 as the recommended angle, citing a market-implied confidence of 42% versus the raw implied probability of 38.6%, translating into an estimated value edge of 8.95%. No other selections cleared our value threshold, so this remains the standout price discrepancy from the current market data for this Leeds vs Newcastle clash.
Verdict: The recommended Leeds United win at 2.59 is grounded in a modest 8.95% value edge over market pricing, not a strong favourite scenario. With implied probabilities for all three outcomes fairly close, this remains a moderate-risk selection; bettors should size stakes accordingly and treat it as one option among several plausible results.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 4-1, for a flat-stake return of +1.59 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Premier League fixtures
All Premier League tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Premier League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Leeds United vs Newcastle United?+
Our tip was Leeds United to win at odds of 2.59.
Who are the favourites in the Leeds United vs Newcastle United match?+
Leeds United are the slight market favourites, priced at 2.59 compared to 2.82 for Newcastle United, implying win probabilities of about 38.6% and 35.5% respectively.
What is the draw priced at for this fixture?+
The draw is available at 3.64, which implies a probability of roughly 27.5%, the lowest of the three outcomes according to current odds.
Is there a value bet for Leeds vs Newcastle?+
Yes, the model highlights Leeds United to win at 2.59 as a value pick, with an 8.95% edge based on a 42% confidence level against the market's implied 38.6% probability; no other selections met the value threshold.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 4-1 (+1.59u at flat stakes).