Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
Levadiakos are priced at 1.85, implying roughly a 54 percent chance of victory according to the market.
The draw at 3.75 implies close to 27 percent, a live secondary outcome the market keeps meaningfully in play.
Panetolikos at 4.9 carry an implied probability of about 20.4 percent, but the model's fair probability of 22 percent points to a 6.11 percent value edge on the outsider.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.02 has an implied break-even probability of 49.5 percent against a modelled 52 percent, a 4.89 percent edge.
Team form
Head-to-head: Levadiakos v Panetolikos Agrinio
W/D/L shown from Levadiakos's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Levadiakos vs Panetolikos Agrinio: pre-match preview
Levadiakos host Panetolikos Agrinio in a Greek Super League fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Levadiakos are priced at 1.85 with Tipico, which implies a win probability of roughly 54 percent, making them the clear favourites on paper. The draw sits at 3.75 with Coolbet (about 27 percent implied), while Panetolikos are out at 4.9 with Unibet (SE), translating to just over 20 percent. Rather than backing the outright result, our model's recommended angle looks at the goals market, favouring Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 with Coolbet. That price implies a break-even probability near 49.5 percent, while the model rates the true chance at about 52 percent, producing a modest value edge. Separately, the model also flags Panetolikos as undervalued in the win market, with a fair probability estimate of 22 percent against the market's 20.4 percent implied figure.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 2.02 offers a modest, data-backed edge rather than a strong statistical lock, with roughly a 52 percent modelled chance against a 49.5 percent break-even point. It represents reasonable value but carries the usual uncertainty of goals markets, so stake sizing should reflect that moderate confidence level.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 0-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Greek Super League fixtures
All Greek Super League tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v PAOK Thessaloniki | 170.00 | 29.00 | 1.03 |
| 10 Oct 15:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | AEK Athens v OFI Crete | 1.20 | 6.10 | 14.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Asteras Tripolis v Atromitos Athens | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | Iraklis FC v Levadiakos | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Panetolikos Agrinio | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Aris Thessaloniki v Volos FC | 1.77 | 3.60 | 5.15 |
| 11 Oct 18:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.39 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
Our tip was Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.02.
Levadiakos are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.85, implying about a 54 percent win probability, compared with Panetolikos at 4.9 (around 20 percent).
The best available draw price is 3.75 with Coolbet, which implies roughly a 27 percent chance of the match ending level.
According to the model, yes to a modest degree; their best price of 4.9 implies about 20.4 percent, while the model's fair probability of 22 percent suggests a 6.11 percent edge, though they remain clear underdogs.
The tip lost — final score 0-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).