Greek Super League · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Levadiakos are market favourites at 2.12, implying close to 47% win probability, ahead of both the draw and a Volos win.
The draw at 3.3 (about 30% implied) is priced marginally higher than an outright Volos win at 3.6 (about 28%), suggesting the market rates a away victory as the least likely single outcome.
The combined implied probabilities sit around 105%, a standard bookmaker margin rather than anything unusual in this market.
The model's only recommended angle, Over 2.5 goals at 2.12, carries a negative value edge of roughly -5%, and no match-result selections cleared the value threshold against market consensus.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.28 |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 11.56 |
| 1-1 | 8.6% | 11.66 |
| 1-0 | 7.6% | 13.11 |
| 3-1 | 7.3% | 13.61 |
| 3-0 | 6.5% | 15.29 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.27 and 1.12. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LEV | X | 2 · VF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.25 | 3.46 |
| Betsson | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.02 | 3.20 | 3.55 |
| 888sport | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Levadiakos host Volos FC in a Greek Super League fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Levadiakos are priced at 2.12 with the best odds available, which implies a probability of roughly 47% of taking all three points. Volos, at 3.6, are given an implied chance of around 28%, while the draw at 3.3 sits at close to 30% - actually a touch higher than the away win. That pricing structure suggests bookmakers see this as a home-leaning contest but not a one-sided mismatch. Our model's headline recommendation isn't tied to the match result market at all; instead it points to Over 2.5 goals at 2.12, carrying a 45% confidence level from the model but a negative value edge of just over 5%, meaning the model itself flags this price as slightly unfavourable rather than a clear opportunity.
Verdict: The data points to Levadiakos as clear market favourites, with the draw priced above a Volos win. The model's Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.12 comes with a negative edge, so it should be treated as a modest, speculative angle rather than a confident value play. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v PAOK Thessaloniki | 170.00 | 29.00 | 1.03 |
| 10 Oct 15:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | AEK Athens v OFI Crete | 1.20 | 6.10 | 14.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Asteras Tripolis v Atromitos Athens | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | Iraklis FC v Levadiakos | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Panetolikos Agrinio | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Aris Thessaloniki v Volos FC | 1.77 | 3.60 | 5.15 |
| 11 Oct 18:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.39 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.12, with a 45% confidence rating.
Levadiakos are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.12, which implies close to a 47% chance of winning, compared to about 28% for Volos.
The draw is priced at 3.3, giving an implied probability of roughly 30%, which is actually slightly higher than the implied probability of a Volos win.
No match-result selection cleared the value threshold against market consensus. The model's only flagged bet, Over 2.5 goals at 2.12, carries a negative value edge of about -5%, so it is not presented as a strong value opportunity.
Levadiakos vs Volos FC takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Greek Super League.
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