Ligue 1 · Sat · 15:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Lille are priced at 1.45, implying a win probability of close to 69 percent, making them clear favourites on paper.
Le Havre's 8.0 price implies just a 12.5 percent chance, reflecting a significant gap between the two sides in the market's eyes.
The draw at 4.99 implies roughly 20 percent, a live but secondary outcome given the favourite's strong pricing.
The model's highlighted value sits in the Under 2.75 goals market at 1.91, with a 6.59 percent edge and 56 percent implied confidence, rather than in the match-result market.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 16.5% | 6.06 |
| 2-0 | 12.8% | 7.83 |
| 1-1 | 11.4% | 8.77 |
| 0-0 | 10.7% | 9.36 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.34 |
| 0-1 | 7.4% | 13.57 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.55 and 0.69. These six scorelines cover 68% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Lille's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LIL | X | 2 · LH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.47 | 4.88 | 7.70 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.47 | 4.70 | 7.50 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.47 | 4.70 | 7.50 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.43 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.48 | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.43 | 4.67 | 6.87 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Lille host Le Havre in a Ligue 1 fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best available prices make Lille strong favourites at 1.45 with 1xBet, a price that implies a win probability of roughly 69 percent. Le Havre, by contrast, are priced at 8.0, translating to an implied chance of around 12.5 percent, while the draw sits at 4.99, or about 20 percent. Rather than lean into the match-result market, our model's recommended angle looks at the goals total: Under 2.75 goals is priced at 1.91 with Pinnacle, carrying a model-implied confidence of 56 percent and a value edge of 6.59 percent versus the market price. That suggests the goals market may offer better relative value than backing the short-priced favourite outright, though as always in Ligue 1 fixtures involving a heavy favourite, low-scoring or cagey patterns are far from guaranteed.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 2.75 goals at 1.91, reflecting a modest statistical edge of 6.59 percent and 56 percent model confidence. It is not a high-conviction certainty, more a value-based lean, so stake sizing should stay measured given the inherent unpredictability of goal totals.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 9 Oct 18:45 | RC Lens v Lyon | 2.26 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | AS Monaco v Toulouse | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.70 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Brest v Angers | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Lorient v Paris FC | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | 1.12 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
| 11 Oct 15:15 | Rennes v Auxerre | 1.46 | 5.24 | 7.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 1.94, with a 49% confidence rating.
Lille are strong favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.45, which implies a win probability of about 69 percent.
The draw is available at 4.99, implying an outcome probability of roughly 20 percent.
The clearest value flagged is not in the match-result market but in Under 2.75 goals at 1.91, which carries a 6.59 percent edge and 56 percent model-implied confidence; no match-result value picks met the threshold.
Lille vs Le Havre takes place Sat · 15:15 in the Ligue 1.
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