English ⚽ Ligue 1 🕒 28 Aug 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
2.15
VoidResult
0.00uProfit
48%Pre-match conf.
-0.92%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at William Hill
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
PSG are the market favourites at 1.78 (about 56% implied), with Lille the outsiders at 4.4 (around 23%).
02
The draw is priced at 3.9, implying roughly 26% and sitting between the two match-result outcomes.
03
Our recommended bet, Under 2.5 goals at 2.15, shows a 3.61% value edge with market-implied confidence of 48%.
04
Lille at 4.4 is rated a value pick, with a fair probability of 24% giving an edge of just over 6%.
Team form
LIL Lille LWWDW
20 Sept 26 @ Nice 1-2
13 Sept 26 vs Troyes 2-0
3 Sept 26 @ Toulouse 1-0
28 Aug 26 vs PSG 2-2
23 Aug 26 @ Angers SCO 2-0
PSG Paris Saint Germain WDWWD
19 Sept 26 vs Strasbourg 2-1
12 Sept 26 vs Olympique Lyon 0-0
6 Sept 26 @ Marseille 3-2
30 Aug 26 vs Nice 3-0
22 Aug 26 @ Troyes 0-0
Head-to-head: Lille v Paris Saint Germain
Full H2H history → W 26 Apr 26
Paris FC 0-1 LilleLigue 1
W 23 Nov 25
Lille 4-2 Paris FCLigue 1
W/D/L shown from Lille's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain: pre-match preview
Lille host Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1 with the away side installed as clear favourites. PSG are priced as short as 1.78, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 56%, while a Lille home win is available at 4.4, or around 23% in probability terms. The draw sits at 3.9, implying about 26%. That price gap tells you the market leans firmly towards the visitors, though nothing here is a formality at these odds. Our model's recommended angle isn't the match result but the goals line: Under 2.5 goals at 2.15 with William Hill, carrying a market-implied confidence of 48% and a modest value edge of 3.61%. Separately, Lille at 4.4 is flagged as a value pick, with a fair probability of 24% and an edge of just over 6% against the market consensus. Approach both selections with sensible stakes.
Verdict: The headline recommendation is Under 2.5 goals at 2.15, a near coin-flip play with a small 3.61% edge and 48% implied confidence. Lille at 4.4 offers a longer-odds value angle. Both carry real risk given the pricing, so stake responsibly and treat neither as a certainty.
How it settled: the tip was voided, for a flat-stake return of 0.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
All Ligue 1 tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 9 Oct 18:45 | RC Lens v Lyon | 2.26 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 15:15 | Lille v Le Havre | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | AS Monaco v Toulouse | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.70 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Brest v Angers | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Lorient v Paris FC | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | 1.12 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Ligue 1 standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.15.
Who is the favourite for Lille vs PSG?+
Paris Saint Germain are the favourites at 1.78, implying roughly a 56% chance. Lille are the outsiders at 4.4, around 23% implied.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is best priced at 3.9 with Tipico, which implies approximately a 26% probability.
Is there any value in this match?+
Our model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 2.15 with a 3.61% edge, plus Lille at 4.4 as a value pick with a fair probability of 24% and an edge just above 6%. Value does not guarantee a win.
Did the tip win?+
The tip was voided (0.00u at flat stakes).