Premier League · Sun · 15:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Manchester City are priced at 2.29 (about 43.7 percent implied), the shortest odds in the match-result market, ahead of the draw at 3.84 (about 26 percent) and Liverpool at 3.15 (about 31.8 percent).
The gap between City and Liverpool's implied probabilities is close to 12 percentage points, indicating a moderate rather than overwhelming favourite status for City.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.68 carries an implied probability of roughly 59.5 percent, matching the model's own 59 percent confidence read.
This selection shows a value edge of -1.52 percent versus market consensus, meaning it is not flagged as a clear value opportunity, and no other picks cleared the site's value threshold.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.3% | 8.88 |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | 10.82 |
| 0-1 | 8.6% | 11.57 |
| 2-1 | 7.3% | 13.62 |
| 0-2 | 7.1% | 14.10 |
| 1-0 | 6.9% | 14.56 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.30 and 1.64. These six scorelines cover 50% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Liverpool's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LIV | X | 2 · MC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.10 | 3.82 | 2.32 |
| Betfair | 2.94 | 3.85 | 2.38 |
| Coolbet | 2.95 | 3.76 | 2.30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.95 | 3.80 | 2.28 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.95 | 3.80 | 2.28 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.95 | 3.80 | 2.28 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Manchester City head to Anfield as favourites according to the betting markets, with the Premier League clash between Liverpool and Manchester City priced to reflect City's edge. Best odds have City at 2.29, which implies a win probability of roughly 43.7 percent, while Liverpool's 3.15 price points to around 31.8 percent, and the draw at 3.84 sits near 26 percent. Combined, these prices carry the standard bookmaker overround, but the gap between the two sides is clear enough to make City the market's pick without suggesting a one-sided contest. Away from the result market, the model's attention turns to goal supply: Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.68, implying a probability near 59.5 percent, which lines up closely with the model's own 59 percent confidence figure. This is the featured recommendation for the match, though it comes with a marginal negative value edge rather than a clear market mismatch.
Verdict: The recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.68, backed by a model confidence of 59 percent that closely mirrors the market's own pricing. With a slightly negative value edge, this is a plausible rather than a standout selection, and bettors should treat it as moderate-confidence, not a mismatch against the odds.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.66, with a 59% confidence rating.
Manchester City are favourites at 2.29, implying roughly a 43.7 percent chance of winning, compared with Liverpool at 3.15 (about 31.8 percent) and the draw at 3.84 (about 26 percent).
The draw is available at 3.84, which implies a probability of approximately 26 percent based on the odds given.
No selections cleared the site's value threshold against the match-result market. The featured recommendation, Over 2.5 goals at 1.68, actually shows a slightly negative edge of -1.52 percent, so it should be viewed as a confidence-based pick rather than a market inefficiency.
Liverpool vs Manchester City takes place Sun · 15:30 in the Premier League.
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