English ⚽ Ligue 1 🕒 21 Aug 2026
Our tip
Strasbourg to win
Odds
5.00
LostResult
4-0Final score
-1.00uProfit
21%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Coolbet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Marseille's 1.7 price implies about a 59% chance, marking them as clear favourites in the eyes of the market.
02
Strasbourg at 5.0 is priced around 20%, but our model's fair probability of 21% points to a small value edge of roughly 3.22%.
03
The draw at 4.62 sits close to Strasbourg's price, implying near 22% and suggesting the market sees a non-trivial chance of no home win.
04
The recommended bet is a value play on the underdog, driven by the price gap rather than a shift in favourite status.
Team form
MAR Marseille LLLWW
11 Sept 26 @ Stade Rennais 0-1
6 Sept 26 vs Paris FC 2-3
30 Aug 26 @ Monaco 0-2
21 Aug 26 vs Strasbourg 4-0
17 May 26 vs Stade Rennais 3-1
STR Strasbourg LDWWL
19 Sept 26 @ Paris FC 1-2
12 Sept 26 vs Monaco 1-1
6 Sept 26 @ Troyes 6-2
29 Aug 26 vs RC Lens 2-1
21 Aug 26 @ Marseille 0-4
Head-to-head: Marseille v Strasbourg
Full H2H history → W 21 Aug 26
Marseille 4-0 StrasbourgLigue 1
D 14 Feb 26
Marseille 2-2 StrasbourgLigue 1
W 26 Sept 25
Strasbourg 1-2 MarseilleLigue 1
W/D/L shown from Marseille's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Marseille vs Strasbourg: pre-match preview
This Ligue 1 clash sees Marseille host Strasbourg, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Marseille are priced at 1.7 with 1xBet, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 59%. Strasbourg, by contrast, sit out at 5.0 with Coolbet, pricing their chances at around 20%, while the draw is available at 4.62, implying close to 22%. The gap between the two sides is clear in the numbers, with Marseille established as the home favourite and Strasbourg firmly in the underdog role. Our model, however, sees a little more in the visitors than the market does: it assigns Strasbourg a fair probability of 21% and flags a value edge of about 3.22% at the 5.0 price. That makes the away win our recommended bet here, taken purely on the discrepancy between our fair estimate and the available odds rather than any assumed form.
Verdict: Our pick is Strasbourg to win at 5.0 with Coolbet, backed by a modest 3.22% value edge against a fair probability of 21%. This is a genuine underdog wager and carries higher risk, so stake responsibly and treat it as a value angle rather than an expected outcome.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 4-0, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
W 21 Aug 26
Over 3.0 goalsfinal score 4-0
1.85 +0.85u Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
All Ligue 1 tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 9 Oct 18:45 | RC Lens v Lyon | 2.26 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 15:15 | Lille v Le Havre | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | AS Monaco v Toulouse | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.70 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Brest v Angers | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Lorient v Paris FC | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | 1.12 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Ligue 1 standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Marseille vs Strasbourg?+
Our tip was Strasbourg to win at odds of 5.00.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 4-0 (-1.00u at flat stakes).