Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
Palmeiras are the market favourites at 2.0, an implied probability of roughly 50%, against Mirassol's 4.01 (about 25%).
The draw at 3.46 implies around 29%, sitting between the two sides and reflecting a competitive pricing structure.
Our model's only flagged edge is on Over 2.0 goals at 1.66, with a value edge of 14.29% and implied confidence near 54%.
No match-result value pick cleared our threshold, so the goals line is where the model sees the mispricing.
Team form
Head-to-head: Mirassol v Palmeiras
Full H2H history →W/D/L shown from Mirassol's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Mirassol vs Palmeiras: pre-match preview
This Brasileirão clash sees Mirassol host Palmeiras, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Palmeiras are priced at 2.0 with Coolbet, translating to an implied probability of around 50%, while Mirassol sit out at 4.01 (roughly 25%). The draw is quoted at 3.46, worth about 29% in implied terms. Those numbers frame Palmeiras as clear favourites, though a price of 2.0 still reflects meaningful uncertainty rather than a foregone conclusion. Our model, however, steers away from picking a winner and instead looks to the goals market. The recommended bet is Over 2.0 goals at 1.66 with Coolbet, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 54% and a value edge of 14.29%. In short, the numbers suggest a lean towards an open, goal-friendly contest rather than a confident call on the outright result between Mirassol and Palmeiras.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 2.0 goals at 1.66, supported by a 14.29% value edge and around 54% implied confidence. It is a moderate-risk bet leaning on an open game rather than a specific winner. Treat the edge as a lean, not a certainty, and stake responsibly.
How it settled: the tip was voided — the match finished 1-1, for a flat-stake return of 0.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
Our tip was Over 2.0 goals at odds of 1.66.
Palmeiras are the favourites at 2.0 with Coolbet, an implied probability of about 50%. Mirassol are the outsiders at 4.01, roughly 25%.
The draw is priced at 3.46 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of around 29%.
Our model found no match-result pick above its value threshold, but it flags Over 2.0 goals at 1.66 with a 14.29% value edge and about 54% implied confidence.
The tip was voided — final score 1-1 (0.00u at flat stakes).