Scottish Premiership · kicked off 15 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Motherwell are strong favourites at 1.76, implying roughly 57 percent win probability, well clear of Aberdeen's 4.63 (about 22 percent).
The draw is priced at 3.92 with Pinnacle, implying close to 25.5 percent, sitting between the two teams' win probabilities.
The combined implied probabilities across the three match-result outcomes total just under 104 percent, reflecting normal bookmaker margin rather than any pricing anomaly.
The recommended Over 2.75 goals bet at 1.86 carries a negative value edge of -4.33 percent against the model's 51 percent confidence, meaning the market price is not obviously generous relative to that estimate.
No match-result selections cleared the site's value threshold for this fixture.
W/D/L shown from Motherwell's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Motherwell host Aberdeen in a Scottish Premiership fixture where the betting market leans clearly towards the home side. Motherwell are priced at 1.76 with Codere (IT), implying a win probability of roughly 57 percent, while Aberdeen sit out at 4.63 with Pinnacle, translating to around 22 percent. The draw, also from Pinnacle, is priced at 3.92, or about 25.5 percent. Those numbers point to a fairly one-sided contest on paper, at least according to the odds compilers. Away from the match-result market, the model's featured angle is a goals market: Over 2.75 goals at 1.86 with Pinnacle, carrying a 51 percent confidence reading from the model but a slightly negative value edge of -4.33 percent versus the raw price. No standout value picks emerged elsewhere in the match-result market for this fixture.
Verdict: The market makes Motherwell clear favourites, with Aberdeen and the draw both priced as longer shots. The featured Over 2.75 goals selection at 1.86 has a modest 51 percent model confidence but a negative value edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk, take-it-or-leave-it angle rather than a high-conviction pick. Stake sizing should stay conservative.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 0-4, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our tip was Motherwell to win at odds of 1.88.
Motherwell are clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.76 which implies roughly 57 percent win probability, compared with Aberdeen at 4.63 (about 22 percent).
The draw is available at 3.92 with Pinnacle, which implies a probability of approximately 25.5 percent.
No match-result selections cleared the value threshold. The site's featured play is an Over 2.75 goals bet at 1.86, though it actually carries a slightly negative value edge of -4.33 percent, so it is not a strong value case either.
The tip lost — final score 0-4 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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