English ⚽ Eredivisie 🕒 5 Sept 2026
Our tip
NEC Nijmegen to win
Odds
3.25
LostResult
1-3Final score
-1.00uProfit
37%Pre-match conf.
+9.06%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Betfair
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Feyenoord are priced at 2.1, implying roughly a 47.6 percent chance of victory, the strongest implied probability in the market for this fixture.
02
NEC Nijmegen's 3.25 price implies about 30.8 percent, but the model's 37 percent estimate creates a 20.82 percent value edge on the home side.
03
The draw at 4.4 implies around 22.7 percent, close to the model's 24 percent fair probability, giving a modest 3.47 percent edge.
04
The gap between Feyenoord's and NEC's implied probabilities (roughly 17 percentage points) reflects the market's clear preference for the away side despite the model's contrasting view.
Team form
NN NEC Nijmegen DLDLW
20 Sept 26 vs Go Ahead 1-1
12 Sept 26 @ Cambuur 0-3
8 Sept 26 vs Excelsior 2-2
5 Sept 26 vs Feyenoord 1-3
29 Aug 26 @ Zwolle 3-1
FEY Feyenoord WWWDW
20 Sept 26 vs Utrecht 5-0
13 Sept 26 @ Zwolle 7-0
5 Sept 26 @ NEC 3-1
30 Aug 26 vs Den Haag 2-2
23 Aug 26 @ Cambuur 5-2
Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen v Feyenoord
Full H2H history → L 5 Sept 26
NEC 1-3 FeyenoordEredivisie
D 12 Apr 26
NEC 1-1 FeyenoordEredivisie
W 23 Nov 25
Feyenoord 2-4 NECEredivisie
W/D/L shown from NEC Nijmegen's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord: pre-match preview
Feyenoord travel to NEC Nijmegen for this Eredivisie clash as clear market favourites, with Betfair pricing them at 2.1 for the win. That price implies a probability of roughly 47.6 percent, comfortably ahead of NEC's 3.25 (about 30.8 percent) and the draw at 4.4 (around 22.7 percent). Those numbers tell a fairly standard story of an away favourite against a home underdog, but the model behind our recommendation sees more value in NEC Nijmegen's price than the raw market suggests. Our system rates NEC's true winning chances at close to 37 percent, well above what the 3.25 odds imply, producing a notable edge. The draw also shows a small positive edge versus its market price. Bettors weighing this Eredivisie fixture should treat these figures as probability estimates rather than certainties.
Verdict: The recommended play is NEC Nijmegen to win at 3.25, backed by a meaningful 20.82 percent edge over the market's implied probability. It remains an underdog selection against a side priced as clear favourite, so this carries real risk and should be sized with careful bankroll management rather than treated as a high-certainty outcome.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-3, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Eredivisie standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 19 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +18 | 17 |
| 3 | PSV | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +14 | 16 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +8 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +12 | 14 |
| 6 | Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 11 |
| 8 | Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Go Ahead | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Sparta | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 13 | Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
| 18 | Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -14 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?+
Our tip was NEC Nijmegen to win at odds of 3.25.
Who is the betting favourite for NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?+
Feyenoord are the clear favourites at 2.1 on Betfair, which implies roughly a 47.6 percent chance of winning, ahead of NEC Nijmegen and the draw.
What are the odds on a draw in this Eredivisie match?+
The best available price on the draw is 4.4, implying an approximate 22.7 percent chance, and the model's fair probability of 24 percent suggests a small value edge of 3.47 percent.
Is there value in backing NEC Nijmegen to win?+
Yes, according to the model, which estimates NEC's true winning probability at about 37 percent against the market-implied 30.8 percent from the 3.25 odds, a value edge of 20.82 percent, though it remains an underdog bet with corresponding risk.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 1-3 (-1.00u at flat stakes).