English ⚽ Premier League 🕒 23 Aug 2026
Our tip
Over 3.25 goals
Odds
1.99
WonResult
2-2Final score
+0.99uProfit
48%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Pinnacle
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Liverpool are favourites at 2.29 (about 44% implied), but the gap to Newcastle at 3.1 (about 32%) is far from decisive.
02
The draw is priced at 4.0, implying roughly a 25% chance and leaving room for a tight outcome.
03
Our recommended Over 3.25 goals bet at 1.99 shows a negative value edge of -4.94%, indicating the price offers no clear margin over the market.
04
With around 48% implied confidence on the goals line, this is close to a coin flip rather than a strong signal.
Team form
NU Newcastle United WLDWD
19 Sept 26 vs Hull City 2-1
14 Sept 26 @ Leeds United 1-4
5 Sept 26 vs Bournemouth 2-2
29 Aug 26 @ Tottenham 2-0
23 Aug 26 vs Liverpool 2-2
LIV Liverpool WDWDD
20 Sept 26 @ Bournemouth 1-0
12 Sept 26 vs Fulham 0-0
4 Sept 26 @ Ipswich Town 2-0
29 Aug 26 vs Nottingham 2-2
23 Aug 26 @ Newcastle 2-2
Head-to-head: Newcastle United v Liverpool
Full H2H history → D 23 Aug 26
Newcastle 2-2 LiverpoolPremier League
L 31 Jan 26
Liverpool 4-1 NewcastlePremier League
L 25 Aug 25
Newcastle 2-3 LiverpoolPremier League
W/D/L shown from Newcastle United's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Newcastle United vs Liverpool: pre-match preview
Newcastle United host Liverpool in a Premier League fixture where the market leans towards the visitors, though not overwhelmingly. Liverpool are priced at 2.29, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 44%, marking them as favourites on the road. Newcastle United sit at 3.1, about a 32% chance, while the draw at 4.0 reflects around a 25% likelihood. That spread suggests bookmakers see a competitive contest rather than a one-sided affair, with Newcastle given a realistic route to an upset at St James' Park. Our model steers away from the match-result market here and instead looks at goals, recommending Over 3.25 goals at 1.99. That pick carries a market-implied confidence of around 48%, though the value edge is negative at -4.94%, so it is offered as a lean rather than a standout opportunity. Anyone considering it should treat it as a modest position within a sensible staking plan.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 3.25 goals at 1.99, a lean towards an open game rather than a value edge, given the -4.94% reading. Confidence sits near 48%, so treat this as a higher-risk, marginal selection and stake accordingly. Outcomes remain uncertain.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 2-2, for a flat-stake return of +0.99 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
L 23 Aug 26
Under 3.25 goalsfinal score 2-2
1.83 -1.00u W 23 Aug 26
Over 3.0 goalsfinal score 2-2
1.83 +0.83u Upcoming Premier League fixtures
All Premier League tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Premier League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Newcastle United vs Liverpool?+
Our tip was Over 3.25 goals at odds of 1.99.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 2-2 (+0.99u at flat stakes).