Ligue 1 · Sun · 13:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Nice are priced as favourites at 2.28, implying close to a 44 percent win probability, the shortest odds of the three outcomes.
Strasbourg at 3.27 carry an implied probability of about 31 percent, notably behind Nice but not a distant outsider.
The draw at 3.69 implies roughly 27 percent, keeping it a live outcome in a fairly tight three-way market.
The model's recommended Strasbourg win carries a 28.3 percent value edge against the market price, the standout data point from this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.0% | 9.07 |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | 10.40 |
| 0-1 | 9.3% | 10.81 |
| 0-2 | 8.1% | 12.38 |
| 2-1 | 6.6% | 15.22 |
| 1-0 | 6.3% | 15.82 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.19 and 1.75. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Nice's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · NIC | X | 2 · STR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.28 | 3.65 | 3.20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.28 | 3.65 | 3.20 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.23 | 3.62 | 3.14 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.26 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | 2.23 | 3.56 | 3.12 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Nice host Strasbourg in a Ligue 1 fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best available odds price Nice at 2.28, which implies a win probability of roughly 44 percent, making them the favourite on paper. Strasbourg sit at 3.27 (about 31 percent implied) and the draw is priced at 3.69 (around 27 percent implied), so the three outcomes are far from evenly split but the gap between Nice and Strasbourg is not overwhelming either. Our model flags Strasbourg to win at 3.27 as the recommended bet, assigning the visitors a 39 percent confidence level against a market-implied 31 percent, a 28.3 percent value edge. That gap suggests the model sees more chance in the away side than the current price reflects, though no specific value picks against the wider market consensus were found for this match.
Verdict: The recommended play is Strasbourg to win at 3.27, backed by a 28.3 percent value edge over the market-implied probability. It remains an underdog bet against a shorter-priced home favourite, so it carries real risk despite the model's positive edge assessment. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 9 Oct 18:45 | RC Lens v Lyon | 2.26 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 15:15 | Lille v Le Havre | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | AS Monaco v Toulouse | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.70 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Brest v Angers | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Lorient v Paris FC | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | 1.12 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| 11 Oct 15:15 | Rennes v Auxerre | 1.46 | 5.24 | 7.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 1.97, with a 49% confidence rating.
Nice are favourites according to the best available odds, priced at 2.28, which implies roughly a 44 percent win probability, the shortest of the three match-result prices.
The draw is priced at 3.69, implying an approximate 27 percent probability, making it a plausible but not the most likely outcome among the three options.
According to the model, yes: Strasbourg's price of 3.27 shows a 28.3 percent value edge, with the model's confidence at 39 percent versus a market-implied 31 percent, though this remains an underdog selection with associated risk.
Nice vs Strasbourg takes place Sun · 13:00 in the Ligue 1.
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