Premier League · Sun · 15:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Arsenal's 1.64 price implies a win probability near 61 percent, making them strong favourites on paper for this fixture
Nottingham Forest's 5.7 price implies only around 17.5 percent, but the model's fair probability of 22 percent suggests a 23.08 percent edge versus the market consensus
The draw is priced at 4.32, implying roughly 23 percent, keeping it a live but secondary outcome behind an Arsenal win
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation carries a slight negative value edge of -1.43 percent, indicating the odds are close to fair rather than clearly favourable
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 13.9% | 7.17 |
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 7.87 |
| 0-0 | 10.1% | 9.93 |
| 0-2 | 9.7% | 10.35 |
| 1-0 | 9.2% | 10.91 |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | 11.36 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.91 and 1.39. These six scorelines cover 64% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Nottingham Forest's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · NF | X | 2 · ARS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.85 | 4.31 | 1.63 |
| Marathon Bet | 5.70 | 4.20 | 1.59 |
| Tipico | 5.70 | 4.20 | 1.55 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 4.00 | 1.57 |
| MyBookie.ag | 5.40 | 4.00 | 1.54 |
| Winamax (DE) | 5.20 | 4.20 | 1.52 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Arsenal head to the City Ground as clear favourites for this Premier League clash with Nottingham Forest, with the best price of 1.64 implying a win probability of just over 60 percent. Forest, by contrast, are priced at 5.7, translating to an implied chance of roughly 17.5 percent, while the draw sits at 4.32, or about 23 percent. Those numbers point to a match the market expects Arsenal to control, though Forest's price still leaves some room for an upset scenario the odds don't fully rule out. Away from the match-result market, the highlighted angle here is goals: our model flags Over 2.5 at 1.89 as the recommended bet, with an implied confidence of 52 percent, suggesting the market and model are closely aligned on this line rather than pointing to a clear mispricing.
Verdict: Arsenal are the market's clear pick, but the Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.89 is the more data-backed angle here, even with a marginally negative edge. It reflects a balanced read on goal expectancy rather than a standout value opportunity, so stakes should be sized with normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.00, with a 50% confidence rating.
Arsenal are the clear favourites, priced at 1.64, which implies a win probability of roughly 61 percent.
The draw is priced at 4.32 at the best available market, implying an approximate 23 percent chance.
The data shows Forest at 5.7 with a fair probability estimate of 22 percent against an implied market probability of about 17.5 percent, giving a 23.08 percent edge, though this remains a long-odds, higher-risk selection.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal takes place Sun · 15:30 in the Premier League.
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