Premier League · kicked off 5 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
The price gap is narrow: Tottenham at 2.68 and Nottingham Forest at 2.78 sit close together, signalling a near-even matchup in the market's view.
Implied probabilities land at roughly 37% for Spurs, 36% for Forest and 28% for the draw, with no side priced as a strong favourite.
Our model identifies value on Nottingham Forest at 2.78, estimating a 42% chance versus the market's 36% for a value edge of about 17.9%.
The draw at 3.53 offers standard pricing for a tight fixture, though no draw value pick cleared our threshold.
W/D/L shown from Nottingham Forest's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
This Premier League meeting between Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur is one the market rates as close to a coin flip. The best available prices have Spurs marginally ahead at 2.68, translating to roughly 37% implied probability, while Forest sit just behind at 2.78, around 36%. The gap is slim, which tells you the bookmakers see little to separate these two sides on paper. The draw is priced at 3.53, implying about 28%, a normal figure for a fixture without a clear favourite. Our model, however, leans towards the home side, flagging Nottingham Forest to win at 2.78 as carrying a value edge of nearly 18% against the market line. In other words, the model believes Forest's true chance is higher than the odds suggest. It remains a tight call rather than a standout, so it is worth weighing carefully before committing a stake.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Nottingham Forest to win at 2.78, backed by a value edge of nearly 18% where our model rates their chance above the market's. This is a fairly even fixture, so treat it as a moderate-risk value play rather than a confident call, and stake responsibly.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 0-0, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip was Nottingham Forest to win at odds of 2.78.
Tottenham are the narrow market favourite at 2.68, just ahead of Nottingham Forest at 2.78. The margin is small, so the market sees this as a close contest.
The draw is priced at 3.53 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 28% chance. That is typical for a fixture the market views as evenly matched.
Our model flags Nottingham Forest to win at 2.78 as the value pick, with an estimated edge of about 17.9% over the market. No draw or away selection cleared our value threshold.
The tip lost — final score 0-0 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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