Brasileirão · Fri · 00:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Palmeiras are priced at 1.66 for the win, implying roughly a 60 percent chance according to the market, the clearest signal in this data set.
Bahia's best price of 5.4 implies just under 19 percent, making them a distant underdog on paper.
The draw at 3.97 sits between the two, implied at about 25 percent, a live but secondary outcome.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.76 carries an implied probability near 57 percent versus a 54 percent model confidence, giving a -4.25 percent value edge, meaning it is not classified as a positive-value selection despite being the highlighted pick.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.1% | 7.62 |
| 2-0 | 12.0% | 8.30 |
| 1-1 | 10.5% | 9.50 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.34 |
| 3-0 | 7.4% | 13.57 |
| 0-0 | 7.1% | 13.99 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.83 and 0.80. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Palmeiras's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · PAL | X | 2 · BAH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 4.03 | 5.42 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.59 | 3.90 | 5.25 |
| Betsson | 1.62 | 3.65 | 5.35 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.57 | 3.95 | 5.30 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.62 | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Palmeiras host Bahia in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Best odds have Palmeiras at 1.66, which implies a win probability of roughly 60 percent, while Bahia drift out to 5.4, translating to just under 19 percent. The draw sits at 3.97, or about 25 percent implied. That gap between the two sides is substantial and reflects a clear home-side lean from oddsmakers. Away from the match-result market, the model's featured angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.76, priced at roughly 57 percent implied probability against a model confidence of 54 percent, producing a value edge of -4.25 percent. In other words, the goals market is the focus of this preview rather than a straightforward backing of the favourite, though the negative edge means this pick is not flagged as strong value by our own metrics.
Verdict: The market strongly favours Palmeiras, but no match-result selection clears a value threshold here. The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.76 is offered as the notable angle, though its own -4.25 percent edge signals it is a marginal rather than a high-confidence recommendation. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.76, with a 54% confidence rating.
Palmeiras are clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.66 for a win, which implies around a 60 percent probability, well ahead of Bahia at 5.4 (about 19 percent) and the draw at 3.97 (about 25 percent).
Based on the data provided, no match-result selection is flagged as a positive-value pick; the listed value picks section shows none above the threshold.
The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.76, implying about 57 percent probability against a 54 percent model confidence, which works out to a -4.25 percent value edge, so it should be viewed as a moderate-risk suggestion rather than a strong-value play.
Palmeiras vs Bahia takes place Fri · 00:30 in the Brasileirão.
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