Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
Palmeiras are heavy favourites at 1.57 (around 64% implied), with Internacional a distant 6.63 (around 15%).
The draw is priced at 3.91, implying roughly 26%, and is the only match-result pick flagged with positive value at an estimated 3.52% edge.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 shows market-implied confidence near 54% but a negative value edge of -4.08%, making it a modest lean.
The sizeable price gap between the two sides points to a match the market expects Palmeiras to dominate.
Team form
Head-to-head: Palmeiras v Internacional
Full H2H history →W/D/L shown from Palmeiras's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Palmeiras vs Internacional: pre-match preview
Palmeiras enter this Brasileirao clash with Internacional as clear home favourites, priced at 1.57 by 1xBet. That equates to a market-implied probability of roughly 64%, underlining how strongly the odds tilt towards the hosts. Internacional, by contrast, are rated a long shot at 6.63, or about 15% in implied terms, while the draw sits at 3.91, translating to around 26%. The wide gap between the two sides reflects a fixture the market expects Palmeiras to control. Our model, however, focuses on the goal line rather than the winner: the recommended angle is Under 2.5 goals at 1.78, carrying market-implied confidence of about 54%. It is worth noting the stated value edge on that pick is slightly negative at -4.08%, so it is a lean rather than a standout price. The one flagged value spot on the match-result market is the draw at 3.91.
Verdict: The model leans toward Under 2.5 goals at 1.78, backed by about 54% implied confidence but a slightly negative value edge, so treat it as a low-conviction pick. The draw at 3.91 offers the only flagged value on the result market. Stake responsibly given the uncertainty.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 0-0, for a flat-stake return of +0.78 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.78.
Palmeiras are the clear favourites at 1.57, which implies roughly a 64% chance. Internacional are outsiders at 6.63, around 15% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.91 with 1xBet, implying about 26%. It is the only match-result selection our model flags with positive value, at an estimated 3.52% edge.
Our model highlights the draw at 3.91 as the value pick on the result market. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 carries a negative value edge of -4.08%, so it is a lean rather than a strong-value play.
The tip won — final score 0-0 (+0.78u at flat stakes).