Greek Super League · kicked off 23 Aug 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
The result odds are close: Panetolikos at 2.62 (around 38% implied) versus Asteras Tripolis at 2.85 (around 35%), a small gap favouring the hosts.
The draw is priced at 3.15, implying roughly 32%, reflecting a genuinely open matchup with no dominant side.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.35 shows a negative value edge of -5.52%, meaning the price sits below what the model considers fair value.
No selection cleared the value threshold against market consensus, so there is no strong edge on offer in this fixture.
W/D/L shown from Panetolikos Agrinio's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
This Greek Super League clash between Panetolikos Agrinio and Asteras Tripolis is priced as a genuinely tight affair, with the market leaning only marginally toward the hosts. Panetolikos are the narrow favourites at 2.62, implying roughly a 38% chance of victory, while Asteras Tripolis sit at 2.85, or around 35% in probability terms. The draw at 3.15 translates to about 32%, underlining how open the bookmakers see this contest. With no side commanding a clear edge, the result market offers little separation. Our model instead looks to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 2.35, which carries a market-implied confidence of about 40%. That said, the calculated value edge here is negative at -5.52%, so this is a lean rather than a standout price. Bettors weighing Panetolikos versus Asteras Tripolis should treat this as a balanced, low-conviction fixture and stake accordingly.
Verdict: The model's lean is Over 2.5 goals at 2.35, backed by roughly 40% implied confidence. However, the negative value edge of -5.52% marks this as a low-conviction pick rather than a strong play. Treat it cautiously, keep stakes modest, and only bet within your means.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 3-1, for a flat-stake return of +1.85 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v PAOK Thessaloniki | 170.00 | 29.00 | 1.03 |
| 10 Oct 15:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | AEK Athens v OFI Crete | 1.20 | 6.10 | 14.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Asteras Tripolis v Atromitos Athens | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | Iraklis FC v Levadiakos | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Panetolikos Agrinio | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Aris Thessaloniki v Volos FC | 1.77 | 3.60 | 5.15 |
| 11 Oct 18:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.39 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip was Panetolikos Agrinio to win at odds of 2.85.
Panetolikos Agrinio are the slight favourites at 2.62, implying about a 38% chance. Asteras Tripolis are close behind at 2.85, or roughly 35%, so the edge is small.
The draw is priced at 3.15 with Coolbet, which implies approximately a 32% probability. That pricing reflects how evenly matched the market sees this fixture.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.35 actually carries a negative edge of -5.52%, so it is a lean rather than a value pick.
The tip won — final score 3-1 (+1.85u at flat stakes).
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