Greek Super League · Sun · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Olympiakos Piraeus is priced at 1.36, translating to an implied win probability of about 73.5 percent, making them the clear market favourite.
Panetolikos Agrinio's 8.65 price implies only an 11.6 percent chance of victory, reflecting a wide gap between the two sides in the market's view.
The draw at 4.55 implies roughly 22.0 percent, leaving the three outcomes summing to about 107 percent once the standard bookmaker margin is accounted for.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.95 carries a model confidence of 49 percent against an implied 51.3 percent, giving a value edge of -5.07 percent rather than a clear positive edge.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 17.9% | 5.60 |
| 0-0 | 13.9% | 7.20 |
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.14 |
| 0-2 | 11.5% | 8.70 |
| 1-0 | 9.6% | 10.47 |
| 1-2 | 7.9% | 12.66 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.69 and 1.29. These six scorelines cover 73% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · PA | X | 2 · OP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 8.65 | 4.55 | 1.36 |
| Betsson | 8.40 | 4.50 | 1.36 |
| Nordic Bet | 8.30 | 4.45 | 1.35 |
| Codere (IT) | 7.80 | 4.40 | 1.34 |
| Winamax (DE) | 7.00 | 4.40 | 1.31 |
| Winamax (FR) | 6.75 | 4.20 | 1.30 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Olympiakos Piraeus travel to face Panetolikos Agrinio in a Greek Super League fixture where the market leaves little room for doubt about the favourite. Betsson prices Olympiakos at 1.36, which implies a win probability of roughly 73.5 percent, while Panetolikos sits out at 8.65 (about 11.6 percent) and the draw is offered at 4.55 (around 22.0 percent) via 1xBet. Those numbers point to a lopsided contest on paper, with the home side needing the odds to be notably wrong to have a realistic sporting chance according to the market. Rather than backing the outright result, our model looks past the winner market and flags Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 as the recommended angle, built around the idea that this fixture could be tighter on goals than the result odds alone suggest. It is worth noting the model's own confidence sits at 49 percent against an implied 51.3 percent from the odds, producing a slim negative edge.
Verdict: The suggested Under 2.5 goals play at 1.95 is a moderate-risk selection with a slightly negative value edge of -5.07 percent, meaning the model does not see it as a strong mathematical edge. Bettors considering it should treat it as a reasoned goals-market angle rather than a high-confidence pick, and stake accordingly within a sensible bankroll plan.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v PAOK Thessaloniki | 170.00 | 29.00 | 1.03 |
| 10 Oct 15:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | AEK Athens v OFI Crete | 1.20 | 6.10 | 14.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Asteras Tripolis v Atromitos Athens | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | Iraklis FC v Levadiakos | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Panetolikos Agrinio | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Aris Thessaloniki v Volos FC | 1.77 | 3.60 | 5.15 |
| 11 Oct 18:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.39 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.95, with a 49% confidence rating.
Olympiakos Piraeus is the clear favourite at odds of 1.36, which implies a win probability of about 73.5 percent according to the market.
The draw is available at 4.55 with 1xBet, implying a probability of roughly 22.0 percent.
No value picks against the result market clear the site's threshold. The model's featured angle, Under 2.5 goals at 1.95, actually shows a slightly negative edge of -5.07 percent, so it should be viewed as a reasoned suggestion rather than a strong value bet.
Panetolikos Agrinio vs Olympiakos Piraeus takes place Sun · 14:00 in the Greek Super League.
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