Liga Profesional · Today · 20:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Platense are market favourites at 2.30, implying roughly 43% win probability, the shortest price on offer for this fixture.
Newells Old Boys sit at 3.62, an implied probability of about 28%, the outsider tag among the three outcomes.
The draw at 2.92 (about 34% implied) sits between the two teams' prices, reflecting a competitive matchup on paper.
The Over 1.5 goals recommendation carries 59% model confidence at odds of 1.60, though the value edge is calculated at -4.97%, meaning the market price is not offering a statistical edge by the model's own measure.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.1% | 7.09 |
| 1-1 | 13.4% | 7.48 |
| 0-0 | 12.2% | 8.20 |
| 0-1 | 11.6% | 8.65 |
| 2-0 | 8.2% | 12.27 |
| 2-1 | 7.7% | 12.94 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.16 and 0.95. These six scorelines cover 67% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newells Old Boys to win | 3.95 | +3.4% | 26% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · PLA | X | 2 · NOB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.33 | 2.95 | 3.78 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.31 | 2.95 | 3.80 |
| BetAnything | 2.31 | 2.95 | 3.80 |
| 1xBet | 2.28 | 2.91 | 3.69 |
| Betsson | 2.32 | 2.92 | 3.55 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Platense host Newells Old Boys in a Liga Profesional clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best odds have Platense at 2.30, translating to an implied probability of roughly 43%, well ahead of Newells Old Boys at 3.62 (about 28%) and the draw at 2.92 (around 34%). That gap suggests bookmakers see Platense as moderate favourites without making them overwhelming picks, and the draw price stays firmly in play given the closeness between it and the away odds. Away from the result market, the recommended angle here is goals rather than outcome: Over 1.5 goals is priced at 1.60, implying a 59% confidence level from the model, positioning this as a total-goals play rather than a bet on either side winning outright.
Verdict: The recommended Over 1.5 goals at 1.60 reflects a fairly short price for a moderately likely outcome, with the model itself flagging a negative value edge. It is a low-risk, low-reward line rather than a strong value angle, so bettors should weigh stake size accordingly and manage bankroll with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:45 | San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors | 17.50 | 3.10 | 1.65 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors | 2.08 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| 20 Sept 22:15 | Belgrano de Cordoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.48 | 4.20 | 10.50 |
| 21 Sept 00:30 | Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| 21 Sept 17:30 | Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Atlético Tucuman | 3.35 | 2.98 | 2.58 |
| 21 Sept 22:00 | Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia | 3.45 | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| 22 Sept 00:15 | Lanus v Estudiantes | 2.26 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| 2 Oct 22:15 | Independiente v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.46 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.60, with a 60% confidence rating.
Platense are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.30 for a win, which implies about a 43% chance, ahead of Newells Old Boys at 3.62 (around 28%) and the draw at 2.92.
The draw is available at 2.92, which implies a probability of roughly 34%, sitting between the two teams' win chances.
The listed value picks show none above the threshold for the match-result market. The site's recommended bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.60 with 59% model confidence, though this carries a stated negative value edge of -4.97%, so it should not be treated as a high-value selection.
Platense vs Newells Old Boys takes place Today · 20:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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