League One · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Plymouth Argyle's 1.64 price implies close to a 61% win probability, making them clear favourites on paper for this League One meeting.
Burton Albion's 5.0 price implies only about 20% for an away win, though the model's fair probability estimate of 22% suggests a small positive edge of 8.49% at that price.
The draw is priced at 4.05 (1xBet), implying roughly 25%, a live alternative given the gap between favourite and underdog pricing.
The recommended Under 2.75 goals bet at 1.94 carries 49% market-implied confidence but shows a slightly negative value edge of -4.52%, meaning the model does not view it as a clear-cut value play.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.3% | 8.83 |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | 9.81 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.34 |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | 11.49 |
| 0-1 | 6.6% | 15.08 |
| 1-2 | 6.3% | 15.90 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.71 and 1.11. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · PA | X | 2 · BA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.64 | 4.03 | 4.91 |
| Betfair | 1.63 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Coolbet | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.63 | 4.00 | 4.90 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.63 | 4.00 | 4.90 |
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 4.05 | 4.88 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Plymouth Argyle host Burton Albion in a League One fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Pinnacle's 1.64 on the home side translates to an implied probability of roughly 61%, a strong figure that points to Plymouth being expected to control proceedings on their own turf. Burton, by contrast, are priced at 5.0 with Coolbet, implying only about 20% for an away win, while the draw sits at 4.05 with 1xBet, implying close to 25%. Together these prices add up to more than 100%, reflecting the standard bookmaker margin built into any match-result market. Away from the win-draw-win market, our model's attention turns to the goals total, recommending Under 2.75 at 1.94 with Pinnacle, a bet priced close to a coin-flip proposition once the bookmaker's margin is factored in. There is also a modestly interesting value angle on Burton themselves, discussed below.
Verdict: The Under 2.75 goals selection at 1.94 is a reasonably balanced proposition given its near 50% implied probability, but the model's own -4.52% edge suggests it is not a standout value bet. Treat it as a moderate-risk option rather than a confident lean, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Wycombe Wanderers v Reading | 2.60 | 3.70 | 2.73 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Bradford City v Barnsley | 1.78 | 3.75 | 4.30 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Milton Keynes Dons v Bromley FC | 1.68 | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Doncaster Rovers v Oxford United | 2.03 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Cambridge United v Wimbledon | 1.83 | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Stevenage v Sheffield Wednesday | 2.95 | 3.25 | 2.38 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Notts County v Blackpool | 2.35 | 3.30 | 2.95 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Mansfield Town v Leyton Orient | 2.10 | 3.55 | 3.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.75 goals at odds of 1.94, with a 49% confidence rating.
Plymouth Argyle are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.64 with Pinnacle, which implies close to a 61% chance of victory.
The draw is available at 4.05 with 1xBet, implying an approximate 25% probability.
Yes, Burton Albion at a best price of 5.0 shows a fair probability estimate of 22% against an implied 20%, giving an edge of about 8.49% according to the model, though this remains a higher-risk underdog price.
Plymouth Argyle vs Burton Albion takes place Sat · 14:00 in the League One.
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