English ⚽ Championship 🕒 19 Sept 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.83
LostResult
2-2Final score
-1.00uProfit
57%Pre-match conf.
-0.54%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Matchbook
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Portsmouth are market favourites at 2.3, implying roughly 43-44 percent win probability, compared to Blackburn's 27 percent at 3.7.
02
The draw at 3.5 sits close to Blackburn's price, implying near 29 percent, keeping the outcome market fairly competitive despite Portsmouth's edge.
03
The model's Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 2.01 carries a market-implied confidence of 47 percent against a slightly negative value edge of -5.04 percent, meaning it is not flagged as strong value by the model's own measure.
04
Blackburn Rovers are separately highlighted as a value price at 3.7, with a fair probability estimate of 29 percent producing an 8.2 percent edge versus the market consensus.
Team form
POR Portsmouth DDWLL
19 Sept 26 vs Blackburn 2-2
12 Sept 26 @ Charlton 0-0
5 Sept 26 vs Cardiff 2-0
1 Sept 26 vs Derby County 0-2
29 Aug 26 @ Bristol City 1-2
BR Blackburn Rovers DWLLD
19 Sept 26 @ Portsmouth 2-2
12 Sept 26 vs Millwall 3-1
8 Sept 26 vs Sheffield Utd 1-2
5 Sept 26 @ Preston NE 1-2
1 Sept 26 @ Lincoln City 0-0
Head-to-head: Portsmouth v Blackburn Rovers
Full H2H history → D 19 Sept 26
Portsmouth 2-2 BlackburnChampionship
D 7 Mar 26
Blackburn 1-1 PortsmouthChampionship
W 13 Dec 25
Portsmouth 2-1 BlackburnChampionship
W/D/L shown from Portsmouth's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Portsmouth vs Blackburn Rovers: pre-match preview
Portsmouth host Blackburn Rovers in a Championship fixture where the betting market clearly leans toward the home side. Best available odds price Portsmouth at 2.3, which implies a win probability of roughly 43-44 percent, well ahead of Blackburn's 3.7 (around 27 percent) and the draw at 3.5 (about 28-29 percent). That gap suggests bookmakers see Fratton Park advantage as significant, though far from decisive given the draw is priced almost identically to the away win. Away from the result market, the model's headline recommendation centres on goals rather than outcome: Over 2.5 at 2.01, implying a near-50 percent chance of both sides combining for three or more goals. Interestingly, the model also flags Blackburn's price as containing value against its own fair-probability estimate, a detail worth weighing alongside the more cautious over/under angle before deciding where any interest lies.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick is plausible given near coin-flip implied odds, but its negative value edge means it is not a standout selection by the model's own metric. Blackburn's 3.7 price shows more statistical value on paper, though as an underdog bet it carries higher variance. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Championship fixtures
All Championship tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Championship standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Portsmouth vs Blackburn Rovers?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.83.
Who are the favourites in the Portsmouth vs Blackburn Rovers match?+
Portsmouth are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.3 which implies roughly a 43-44 percent chance of winning, compared with Blackburn's 27 percent at 3.7.
What is the draw priced at for this Championship fixture?+
The draw is available at 3.5, implying a probability of around 28-29 percent, only marginally behind Blackburn's own implied win chance.
Is there value in this fixture according to the model?+
The model flags Blackburn Rovers at 3.7 as carrying an 8.2 percent edge over its fair probability estimate of 29 percent, while the separately recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.01 actually shows a slightly negative edge of -5.04 percent.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 2-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).