Liga MX · Tomorrow · 02:10 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Querétaro are the nominal favourites at 2.28, implying close to 44 percent, ahead of León (2.8, about 36 percent) and the draw (3.45, about 29 percent).
The gap between Querétaro and León prices is narrow enough that the market does not treat this as a heavily one-sided contest.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals price of 1.62 corresponds to an implied probability near 62 percent, while the model's own confidence is put at 57 percent, and the listed value edge is negative at -7.43 percent.
No selections in the standard value-picks screen cleared the site's threshold for this fixture, meaning the goals market stands as the only actionable idea from the data provided.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.10 |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | 8.31 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.86 |
| 2-0 | 9.0% | 11.14 |
| 0-1 | 8.3% | 12.11 |
| 0-0 | 8.1% | 12.41 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.49 and 1.02. These six scorelines cover 59% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · QUE | X | 2 · LEÓ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.72 | 3.60 | 2.74 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.72 |
| Pinnacle | 2.67 | 3.53 | 2.66 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.63 | 3.51 | 2.70 |
| Coolbet | 2.60 | 3.37 | 2.70 |
| GTbets | 2.61 | 3.43 | 2.64 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Querétaro host León in a Liga MX fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side, even if only modestly. Querétaro are priced at 2.28 with Unibet (NL), which works out to an implied probability of roughly 44 percent, the shortest price of the three outcomes on offer. León sit at 2.8, implying around 36 percent, while the draw is the least favoured outcome at 3.45, or about 29 percent implied. Those numbers point to a fixture the market sees as competitive rather than one-sided, with only a few points separating favourite and second favourite. Away from the match-result market, the model's headline recommendation is Over 2.5 goals at 1.62, reflecting a view that this Querétaro-León meeting could produce goals at both ends, though the stated value edge on that selection is slightly negative rather than a clear market inefficiency.
Verdict: The data frames Querétaro as slight favourites over León, with the draw least likely according to the odds. The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.62 is the only recommended angle, but its negative value edge suggests it is a reasonable rather than standout opportunity, so stake sizing should stay measured.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sept 00:00 | Pachuca v Tijuana | 1.76 | 4.06 | 5.10 |
| 21 Sept 00:00 | Toluca v Santos Laguna | 1.27 | 7.60 | 11.00 |
| 26 Sept 01:00 | Atlante FC v Monterrey | 3.81 | 3.85 | 1.94 |
| 26 Sept 03:00 | Tijuana v Atlas | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| 26 Sept 23:00 | Cruz Azul v Toluca | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 26 Sept 23:07 | Guadalajara v Querétaro | 1.41 | 4.60 | 6.25 |
| 27 Sept 01:00 | Tigres v Puebla | 1.50 | 4.70 | 6.00 |
| 27 Sept 01:00 | Santos Laguna v Pachuca | 3.45 | 3.55 | 1.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.14, with a 46% confidence rating.
Based on the odds, Querétaro are the market favourites at 2.28, implying roughly a 44 percent chance, compared to León's 2.8 (about 36 percent) and the draw at 3.45 (about 29 percent).
The draw is priced at 3.45 with Unibet (NL), which implies an approximate 29 percent probability, the lowest of the three match-result outcomes.
The only recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.62, but its value edge is listed as -7.43 percent, meaning it is not flagged as a strong value bet under the site's own criteria.
Querétaro vs León takes place Tomorrow · 02:10 in the Liga MX.
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