Scottish Premiership · kicked off 9 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Rangers are priced at 1.35 with William Hill, implying an approximate 74% win probability and clear favourite status.
St Mirren's best available price of 9.06 with Pinnacle implies only around 11% chance of an away win.
The draw is offered at 5.66 with Pinnacle, translating to roughly an 18% implied probability.
The recommended play sits outside the match result market entirely: Under 3.25 goals at 1.85, carrying a 58% modelled confidence and a 7.52% value edge.
W/D/L shown from Rangers's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Rangers host St Mirren at Ibrox in a Scottish Premiership fixture where the market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. William Hill's 1.35 on a home win implies a probability of roughly 74%, making Rangers heavy favourites, while St Mirren's best price of 9.06 with Pinnacle points to just an 11% chance of an away win. The draw sits at 5.66, implying around 18%, a figure that often holds some appeal in lopsided fixtures like this one. Rather than backing the short-priced favourite outright, our model looks past the match result and into the goals market, recommending Under 3.25 goals at 1.85 with Pinnacle. This selection carries a modelled confidence of 58% and a value edge of 7.52%, suggesting the goals total may be priced more generously than the raw win markets on offer.
Verdict: With Rangers heavily favoured and St Mirren offering little market resistance, the more interesting angle is the goals total rather than the result itself. Under 3.25 goals at 1.85 offers a modest value edge with moderate confidence, but goals markets remain unpredictable and this should be treated as a measured, not certain, pick.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-0, for a flat-stake return of +0.85 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our tip was Under 3.25 goals at odds of 1.85.
Rangers are strong favourites, priced at 1.35 with William Hill, which implies roughly a 74% chance of a home win.
The draw is priced at 5.66 with Pinnacle, implying an approximate 18% probability.
The model does not flag value in the straight match-result market, but it identifies value in the goals market, recommending Under 3.25 goals at 1.85 with a 7.52% edge and 58% confidence.
The tip won — final score 1-0 (+0.85u at flat stakes).
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