English ⚽ Austrian Bundesliga 🕒 Fri · 17:30
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Odds
1.72
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 61%
AI Value edge 4.86% · best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Rapid Wien's 1.29 price implies roughly a 77% chance of victory according to the market, making them strong favourites in this Austrian Bundesliga fixture.
02
Hartberg's 8.75 odds imply only around 11% probability, reflecting a wide gap between the two sides in the eyes of bookmakers.
03
The draw at 5.8 implies roughly 17%, sitting between the two outright outcomes and offering a secondary hedge for bettors wary of the favourite's short price.
04
The recommended Under 3.5 goals selection at 1.72 carries a 61% model confidence and a value edge of about 4.86%, the only pick flagged above the site's threshold for this match.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 53%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.9% | 8.41 |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | 9.23 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.60 |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 11.64 |
| 0-1 | 7.5% | 13.33 |
| 0-0 | 6.8% | 14.64 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.59 and 1.10. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
RW Rapid Wien WWLWW
18 Sept 26 vs WSG Tirol 3-0
12 Sept 26 @ Wolfsberger AC 3-0
2 Sept 26 @ RB Salzburg 1-5
30 Aug 26 vs Sturm Graz 3-1
16 Aug 26 vs Grazer AK 8-0
HAR Hartberg DDWWL
20 Sept 26 vs LASK 3-3
13 Sept 26 @ WSG Tirol 2-2
30 Aug 26 vs Ried 3-2
22 Aug 26 @ Rheindorf Altach 2-1
16 Aug 26 vs Austria Wien 0-2
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · RW | X | 2 · HAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.27 | 5.80 | 8.75 |
| William Hill | 1.29 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| 888sport | 1.29 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.25 | 5.40 | 8.40 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.22 | 5.40 | 7.50 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.21 | 5.20 | 7.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Rapid Wien vs Hartberg: match preview
Rapid Wien host Hartberg in the Austrian Bundesliga with the market leaving little doubt about who the bookmakers expect to win. William Hill's 1.29 on the home side implies a probability above 77%, a strong statement of favouritism for Rapid Wien on their own ground. Hartberg, by contrast, are priced at 8.75 with 1xBet, translating to roughly 11% implied probability, while the draw sits at 5.8, implying around 17%. Those numbers point to a lopsided contest on paper, though a heavy favourite does not remove uncertainty from the scoreline itself. Our model does not chase the outright winner here, instead flagging Under 3.5 goals at 1.72 as the recommended angle, with a modelled confidence of 61% and a value edge close to 4.86%. That framing shifts the focus away from who wins toward how many goals the match is likely to produce, which is where the perceived edge lies.
Verdict: With no outright value spotted in the match-result market, the Under 3.5 goals selection at 1.72 stands out as the more balanced option, backed by a modest 4.86% edge and 61% confidence. It is not a certainty, and goal totals can swing on small margins, so this remains a measured, moderate-risk pick rather than a high-conviction one.
Upcoming Austrian Bundesliga fixtures
All Austrian Bundesliga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Ried | 2.60 | 3.42 | 2.53 |
| 10 Oct 17:30 | Austria Wien v Sturm Graz | 3.40 | 3.62 | 2.05 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Hartberg v Austria Lustenau | 2.33 | 3.40 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 15:00 | LASK v Rapid Wien | 1.80 | 3.84 | 3.94 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.05 | 5.30 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol | 2.34 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Rapid Wien vs Hartberg?+
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.72, with a 61% confidence rating.
Who is favourite in the Rapid Wien vs Hartberg match?+
Rapid Wien are clear favourites, priced at 1.29 with William Hill, which implies a probability of roughly 77% according to the market.
What are the odds on the draw for Rapid Wien vs Hartberg?+
The draw is priced at 5.8 with 1xBet, implying an approximate 17% chance based on current market pricing.
Is there a value bet for Rapid Wien vs Hartberg?+
No standout value was found in the match-result market itself, but the model highlights Under 3.5 goals at 1.72 as a recommended bet with a value edge of about 4.86% and 61% confidence.
When does the match kick off?+
Rapid Wien vs Hartberg takes place Fri · 17:30 in the Austrian Bundesliga.