English ⚽ Austrian Bundesliga 🕒 30 Aug 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
2.35
LostResult
3-1Final score
-1.00uProfit
45%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Sturm Graz are narrow favourites at 2.5 (about 40% implied), just ahead of Rapid Wien at 2.65 (about 38%).
02
The small price gap of 0.15 between the two teams signals a closely matched contest in the market's eyes.
03
The draw at 3.5 implies roughly 29%, a realistic outcome given how evenly the sides are priced.
04
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 carries a negative value edge of -5.82%, so it offers no pricing advantage despite the 53% model confidence.
Team form
RW Rapid Wien WWLWW
18 Sept 26 vs WSG Tirol 3-0
12 Sept 26 @ Wolfsberger AC 3-0
2 Sept 26 @ RB Salzburg 1-5
30 Aug 26 vs Sturm Graz 3-1
16 Aug 26 vs Grazer AK 8-0
SG Sturm Graz LWLDW
20 Sept 26 @ RB Salzburg 0-3
13 Sept 26 vs LASK 2-1
30 Aug 26 @ Rapid Wien 1-3
22 Aug 26 vs Austria Lustenau 1-1
15 Aug 26 vs Rheindorf Altach 1-0
Head-to-head: Rapid Wien v Sturm Graz
W 30 Aug 26
Rapid Wien 3-1 Sturm GrazAustrian Bundesliga
W/D/L shown from Rapid Wien's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz: pre-match preview
This Austrian Bundesliga clash between Rapid Wien and Sturm Graz is a genuinely tight one according to the market. Sturm Graz are marginally the favourites at 2.5, which translates to roughly 40% implied probability, while Rapid Wien sit just behind at 2.65, or about 38%. The draw is priced at 3.5, implying near 29%. Those figures show a bookmaker who sees very little separating the two sides, with the home advantage not enough to swing the pricing decisively toward Rapid. Rather than pick a side, our model leans toward the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 with Coolbet, carrying a market-implied confidence around 53%. It is worth noting up front that this selection currently shows a negative value edge, so it is more of a model preference than a clear pricing advantage. Weigh that carefully before committing any stake.
Verdict: The model favours Over 2.5 goals at 1.78, backed by around 53% implied confidence. However, the negative value edge of -5.82% means the price offers no market advantage, making this a moderate-risk selection at best. Treat it as a lean rather than a strong call and stake responsibly.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 3-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Austrian Bundesliga fixtures
All Austrian Bundesliga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Ried | 2.60 | 3.42 | 2.53 |
| 10 Oct 17:30 | Austria Wien v Sturm Graz | 3.40 | 3.62 | 2.05 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Hartberg v Austria Lustenau | 2.33 | 3.40 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 15:00 | LASK v Rapid Wien | 1.80 | 3.84 | 3.94 |
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.29 | 5.80 | 8.75 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.05 | 5.30 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.35.
Who is the favourite for Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz?+
Sturm Graz are the slight favourites at 2.5, implying about 40%, narrowly ahead of Rapid Wien at 2.65 (roughly 38%). The margin is small, indicating a closely matched fixture.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is priced at 3.5 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of around 29%. Given how evenly the two teams are priced, a stalemate is a reasonable consideration.
Is there value in betting on this match?+
Our model's recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 shows a negative value edge of -5.82%, and no value picks cleared our threshold. That means no clear pricing advantage was identified here.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 3-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).