Bundesliga · Sat · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Leipzig are priced at 1.53, implying roughly 65 percent win probability and marking them clear favourites over Frankfurt.
Frankfurt's 5.74 price implies about 17 percent, the lowest of the three match-result outcomes.
The draw at 5.33 (about 19 percent implied) is priced closer to a Frankfurt win than to a genuine coin-flip outcome.
The recommended Over 3.75 goals bet at 1.98 carries a negative value edge of -4.09 percent, meaning the model's confidence (48 percent) falls short of the market-implied 50 percent threshold for this line.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 11.04 |
| 3-1 | 7.4% | 13.46 |
| 1-1 | 7.4% | 13.59 |
| 2-0 | 6.7% | 14.86 |
| 2-2 | 6.1% | 16.42 |
| 3-0 | 5.5% | 18.08 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.46 and 1.34. These six scorelines cover 42% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from RB Leipzig's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RL | X | 2 · EF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.54 | 4.95 | 5.20 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.54 | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.53 | 4.85 | 5.05 |
| Tipico | 1.52 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Betsson | 1.55 | 4.60 | 4.95 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
RB Leipzig host Eintracht Frankfurt in a Bundesliga fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about who is favoured. Leipzig's price of 1.53 with 1xBet implies a win probability of roughly 65 percent, a clear reflection of the market's confidence in the home side. Frankfurt, at 5.74, are priced as significant underdogs, with an implied chance of around 17 percent, while the draw at 5.33 sits close behind at about 19 percent, suggesting the bookmakers see a stalemate as only marginally less likely than an away win. Away from the match-result market, the highlighted angle for this game is a goals total: our model flags Over 3.75 goals at 1.98 with Pinnacle, translating to an implied probability near 50 percent, though the model's own confidence reading of 48 percent and a negative value edge temper how strongly this should be read as an opportunity.
Verdict: The Over 3.75 goals pick at 1.98 is presented as the standout angle here, but with a -4.09 percent value edge and 48 percent model confidence, it is not a clean value play. It reflects a competitive scoring expectation rather than a strong statistical edge, so stake sizing should stay conservative.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:30 | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim | 1.81 | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Augsburg v Bayern Munich | 11.50 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Elversberg | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.15 | 3.96 | 2.35 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | 4.90 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| 11 Oct 13:30 | 1. FC Köln v Borussia Monchengladbach | 2.04 | 4.09 | 3.58 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.89, with a 52% confidence rating.
RB Leipzig are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.53 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 65 percent chance of winning. Frankfurt, at 5.74, are priced as significant underdogs.
The draw is available at 5.33 with 1xBet, implying an approximate 19 percent probability, slightly higher than Frankfurt's implied win chance.
No standout value picks against market consensus were identified. The recommended Over 3.75 goals bet at 1.98 actually carries a negative value edge of -4.09 percent, so it should be viewed as a moderate-confidence angle rather than a clear-cut value bet.
RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt takes place Sat · 16:30 in the Bundesliga.
English 
