Champions League · Tue · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Leipzig are market favourites at 2.12, implying roughly a 47% chance of victory, well ahead of PSV's 29% implied probability at 3.45.
The draw at 4.21 carries an implied probability near 24%, but the model's fair estimate of 26% creates an 8.4% edge, the strongest value signal in this data set.
The Over 3.5 goals recommendation at 2.1 has a modelled confidence of 47%, but its value edge is slightly negative at -1.36%, suggesting the price is close to fair rather than generous.
Combined implied probabilities across the three result outcomes total close to 100%, indicating a relatively tight, low-margin market for this fixture.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RL | X | 2 · PE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.08 | 4.16 | 3.38 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| Coolbet | 2.05 | 4.30 | 3.25 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.02 | 4.15 | 3.30 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.03 | 4.05 | 3.30 |
| GTbets | 2.02 | 3.97 | 3.29 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
RB Leipzig host PSV Eindhoven in a Champions League group-stage clash where the betting market clearly favours the Bundesliga side. Leipzig's best price of 2.12 implies a win probability of roughly 47%, while PSV's 3.45 corresponds to about 29%, and the draw at 4.21 sits near 24%. Those numbers point to a moderate home edge rather than a lopsided mismatch, leaving room for either an away upset or a stalemate. Our model's headline recommendation looks beyond the result market, flagging Over 3.5 goals at 2.1 with an implied confidence of 47%, though the calculated value edge on that line is slightly negative. Separately, the draw stands out as the more statistically interesting angle, priced at 4.21 against a fair probability estimate of 26%, an 8.4% edge over the market's own implied figure.
Verdict: The data points to Leipzig as a moderate favourite, but the standout value lies with the draw at 4.21, which the model rates above its market-implied odds. The Over 3.5 goals pick is plausible but not clearly value-positive given its slight negative edge, so it should be treated as a speculative rather than a strong selection.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 16:45 | RC Lens v Sporting Lisbon | 2.47 | 3.95 | 2.86 |
| 13 Oct 16:45 | Sabah FK v Slavia Praha | 3.72 | 4.00 | 2.06 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Arsenal v Lille | 1.33 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Inter Milan v Club Brugge | 1.32 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Villarreal v Napoli | 2.42 | 3.75 | 3.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Viking FK v Bayern Munich | 26.00 | 14.70 | 1.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Atlético Madrid v Manchester United | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.97 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Galatasaray v Barcelona | 9.30 | 6.50 | 1.35 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barça | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 | Man United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como 1907 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | PAE AEK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Shaktar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Club Brugge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Atleti | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | LASK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Sl. Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodø/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.89, with a 52% confidence rating.
RB Leipzig are favoured by the market at odds of 2.12, implying roughly a 47% win probability, compared with PSV's 29% implied chance at 3.45.
The best available draw price is 4.21, which implies about a 24% probability, though the model's fair estimate of 26% suggests some added value on this outcome.
The model lists Over 3.5 goals at 2.1 with 47% implied confidence, but the calculated value edge is slightly negative at -1.36%, meaning the price is close to fair value rather than a strong edge.
RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven takes place Tue · 19:00 in the Champions League.
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