Ligue 1 · Fri · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Lens are favoured at 2.21, implying roughly a 45% chance of victory, the strongest of the three outcomes priced.
Lyon's 3.33 price translates to about a 30% implied probability, keeping them live outsiders rather than firm underdogs.
The draw is priced at 3.82, or close to 26% implied probability, reflecting a fairly balanced overall market split.
The Under 3.0 Goals selection at 1.91 carries a 48% model-implied confidence and a notable 13.87% value edge, the standout angle in this preview.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.4% | 8.80 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.76 |
| 1-0 | 8.9% | 11.19 |
| 2-0 | 7.3% | 13.68 |
| 1-2 | 7.2% | 13.85 |
| 0-1 | 7.0% | 14.39 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.64 and 1.27. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from RC Lens's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RL | X | 2 · LYO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.26 | 3.80 | 3.23 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.17 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.17 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.20 | 3.70 | 3.14 |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 3.72 | 3.08 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.12 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Ligue 1 action brings RC Lens and Lyon together, with the betting market clearly leaning toward the hosts. Lens are priced at 2.21 for the win, which implies a probability of roughly 45%, while Lyon's 3.33 price points to around 30% and the draw at 3.82 suggests about 26%. Those numbers indicate a moderate home edge rather than a one-sided mismatch, leaving room for either side to find success on the day. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, where an Under 3.0 Goals selection at 1.91 stands out with a value edge of nearly 14% against the market's own pricing. That combination of a competitive result market and a statistically favoured goals line shapes the core of this Ligue 1 preview.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 3.0 Goals at 1.91, backed by a solid value edge over the market's own pricing. It is not a lock, given the roughly even split in win probabilities for Lens and Lyon, so this should be treated as a measured, moderate-risk selection within a disciplined staking approach.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 10 Oct 15:15 | Lille v Le Havre | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | AS Monaco v Toulouse | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.70 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Brest v Angers | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Lorient v Paris FC | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | 1.12 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
| 11 Oct 15:15 | Rennes v Auxerre | 1.46 | 5.24 | 7.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 50% confidence rating.
RC Lens are the market favourites at odds of 2.21, which implies close to a 45% chance of winning, compared with about 30% for Lyon.
The draw is priced at 3.82, which corresponds to an implied probability of roughly 26%.
The clearest value flagged is not in the win market but in the goals market, with Under 3.0 Goals at 1.91 showing a 13.87% edge and 48% model-implied confidence.
RC Lens vs Lyon takes place Fri · 18:45 in the Ligue 1.
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