Champions League · Wed · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Betis are market favourites at 2.28, implying roughly a 44 percent win probability, against Porto's 3.23 (about 31 percent) and the draw at 3.78 (about 26 percent).
The gap between Betis and Porto's odds points to a moderate rather than dominant home advantage according to the market.
The draw is flagged as a value selection, with a fair probability of 27 percent exceeding what the 3.78 price implies, producing a 3.55 percent edge.
The model's Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.72 carries a 57 percent implied confidence level but shows a small negative value edge of -1.41 percent, meaning the price does not fully match the model's own probability estimate.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RB | X | 2 · POR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.10 | 3.84 | 3.57 |
| Coolbet | 2.10 | 3.85 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.02 | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.08 | 3.60 | 3.55 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.05 | 3.74 | 3.48 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.13 | 3.65 | 3.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Real Betis host Porto in a Champions League fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Betis are priced at 2.28 with Betsson, which implies a win probability of roughly 44 percent, while Porto's best price of 3.23 with 1xBet points to around 31 percent. The draw, available at 3.78 with 1xBet, is priced at close to 26 percent. Those numbers suggest a competitive, fairly open contest rather than a one-sided affair. Our model's headline recommendation for this match is Over 2.5 goals at 1.72, reflecting a 57 percent confidence level, though the calculated value edge on that selection is slightly negative. Elsewhere, the draw stands out as the value pick of the match, with a fair probability estimate of 27 percent against a market price that implies less, giving it a positive edge of 3.55 percent.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.72 is the model's headline pick, backed by a 57 percent confidence reading, though its slightly negative value edge tempers enthusiasm. The draw at 3.78 offers a more favourable statistical edge. Neither is risk-free, and bettors should size stakes with normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 16:45 | RC Lens v Sporting Lisbon | 2.47 | 3.95 | 2.86 |
| 13 Oct 16:45 | Sabah FK v Slavia Praha | 3.72 | 4.00 | 2.06 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Arsenal v Lille | 1.33 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Inter Milan v Club Brugge | 1.32 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Villarreal v Napoli | 2.42 | 3.75 | 3.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven | 2.08 | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Viking FK v Bayern Munich | 26.00 | 14.70 | 1.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Atlético Madrid v Manchester United | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.97 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barça | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 | Man United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como 1907 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | PAE AEK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Shaktar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Club Brugge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Atleti | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | LASK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Sl. Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodø/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.72, with a 57% confidence rating.
Real Betis are the market favourites, priced at 2.28 with Betsson, which implies a win probability of roughly 44 percent, compared to Porto's 3.23 (about 31 percent).
The best available draw price is 3.78 with 1xBet, implying a probability of around 26 percent, though the model's fair probability estimate of 27 percent suggests some added value at that price.
Yes, the draw shows a positive value edge of 3.55 percent based on the model's fair probability versus the market price, while the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.72 has a slight negative edge of -1.41 percent despite a 57 percent confidence rating.
Real Betis vs Porto takes place Wed · 19:00 in the Champions League.
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