La Liga · Sun · 14:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Real Sociedad's 1.94 price implies just over 51% win probability, the strongest single outcome on the board
Deportivo La Coruña's 4.51 odds put their implied win chance at roughly 22%, reflecting their underdog status away from home
The draw at 3.59 (about 28% implied) is priced closer to Deportivo's win chance than to Sociedad's, suggesting some competitive uncertainty remains
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.91 carries a slightly negative value edge of -1.59%, meaning the market price is marginally tighter than the model's own estimate
| Bookmaker | 1 · RS | X | 2 · DLC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.97 | 3.69 | 4.21 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.92 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.93 | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.93 | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| Coolbet | 1.88 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.96 | 3.55 | 3.85 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Real Sociedad host Deportivo La Coruña in a La Liga fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Sociedad are priced at 1.94 for the win, which implies a probability of just over 51%, making them clear favourites on home soil. Deportivo, at 4.51, are given only around a 22% chance by the market, while the draw at 3.59 sits at roughly 28%. These figures point to a game where the hosts are expected to control proceedings, though the draw price suggests bookmakers are not dismissing a tighter contest entirely. Rather than backing a match-result outcome, our model's recommended angle for this fixture is the Over 2.5 goals market at 1.91, which corresponds to an implied probability of about 52%. This sits close to the model's own confidence reading, so it should be treated as a measured pick rather than a standout opportunity.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.91 aligns closely with the model's 52% confidence level, but the negative value edge means it is not a clear market inefficiency. It is a reasonable, moderate-risk angle rather than a strong recommendation, and bankroll discipline is advised given the tight margins involved.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Valencia v Real Sociedad | 3.18 | 3.45 | 2.58 |
| 9 Oct 19:00 | Málaga v Espanyol | 2.50 | 3.38 | 3.13 |
| 10 Oct 12:00 | Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao | 3.20 | 3.51 | 2.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:15 | Alavés v Atlético Madrid | 3.90 | 3.75 | 2.08 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Barcelona v Getafe | 1.07 | 24.00 | 55.00 |
| 10 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Villarreal | 1.27 | 7.50 | 11.30 |
| 11 Oct 12:00 | Elche CF v Celta Vigo | 3.03 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| 11 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v CA Osasuna | 1.61 | 4.47 | 5.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atleti | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Celta | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.06, with a 48% confidence rating.
Real Sociedad are the clear market favourites at 1.94, which implies a win probability of just over 51%, compared to Deportivo La Coruña's 4.51 price and roughly 22% implied chance.
The draw is priced at 3.59, implying a probability of around 28%, which sits between the two teams' win chances but closer to Deportivo's.
No standout value picks were found against the match-result market for this fixture. The model's featured angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.91, though this carries a slightly negative value edge of -1.59%, so it should be seen as a measured suggestion rather than a strong edge.
Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruña takes place Sun · 14:15 in the La Liga.
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