Ligue 1 · Sun · 15:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Rennes are priced at 1.48, implying an approximate 68 percent chance of victory according to the market
Auxerre's 6.83 price points to only around a 15 percent implied win probability, reflecting a wide gap between the two sides
The draw is priced at 5.13, implying roughly 19 percent, a live but secondary outcome given the favourite's strength
The Under 3.25 goals recommendation carries 53 percent implied confidence but a -4.09 percent value edge, meaning the odds do not fully compensate for the assessed risk
| Bookmaker | 1 · REN | X | 2 · AUX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 5.24 | 7.19 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.43 | 5.10 | 7.50 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.43 | 5.10 | 7.50 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.42 | 5.10 | 7.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.41 | 4.90 | 7.50 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.43 | 5.00 | 6.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Rennes host Auxerre in a Ligue 1 fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best odds price Rennes at 1.48, which implies a win probability of roughly 68 percent, making them clear favourites for this meeting. Auxerre, at 6.83, are given only about a 15 percent chance by the same pricing, while the draw at 5.13 sits at close to 19 percent. With such a lopsided match-result market, our recommended angle steps away from backing a side outright and instead looks at the game's overall goal tally: Under 3.25 goals at 1.81, which the model flags with 53 percent implied confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -4.09 percent, suggesting the price is not quite generous enough relative to that confidence level.
Verdict: The recommended Under 3.25 goals bet at 1.81 reflects a moderate lean toward a lower-scoring contest, but the negative value edge means it is not a standout market opportunity by the model's own measure. Bettors should treat it as a considered option rather than a confident value play, and size stakes with appropriate caution.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 9 Oct 18:45 | RC Lens v Lyon | 2.26 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 15:15 | Lille v Le Havre | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | AS Monaco v Toulouse | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.70 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Brest v Angers | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Lorient v Paris FC | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | 1.12 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.25 goals at odds of 2.01, with a 48% confidence rating.
Rennes are strong favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.48, which implies roughly a 68 percent chance of winning, compared to Auxerre's 6.83 price implying about 15 percent.
The draw is priced at 5.13, which implies an approximate 19 percent probability based on the market.
No standout value picks were identified against market consensus. The model's suggested Under 3.25 goals bet at 1.81 has 53 percent implied confidence but carries a slightly negative value edge of -4.09 percent, so it should be viewed as a moderate rather than a high-value option.
Rennes vs Auxerre takes place Sun · 15:15 in the Ligue 1.
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