Austrian Bundesliga · kicked off 12 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Rheindorf Altach are priced at 2.14, implying roughly a 47% chance of victory, the highest single-outcome probability on the board.
Grazer AK and the draw share identical odds of 3.50, each implying about a 29% probability, suggesting the market sees little to separate an away win from a stalemate.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.93 carries a stated value edge of -5.8%, indicating the odds do not currently favour the bettor according to the model.
Combined match-result probabilities total around 104%, reflecting a normal bookmaker margin rather than any standout mispricing.
W/D/L shown from Rheindorf Altach's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Rheindorf Altach host Grazer AK in an Austrian Bundesliga meeting where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them an overwhelming favourite. Altach's best price of 2.14 implies a win probability of roughly 47%, while Grazer AK's 3.50 works out to about 29%, with the draw priced identically at 3.50 for another 29% chance. Adding those figures together shows a standard bookmaker overround of just under 4%, meaning no side is being offered as a near-certainty. Away from the match-result market, the site's model points to Over 2.5 goals at 1.93 as its recommended angle, though it flags a market-implied confidence of only 49% and a value edge of -5.8%, meaning the price does not clearly favour backing it purely on numbers. This is a fixture where the outcome markets look competitive and the goals market carries genuine uncertainty rather than a clear statistical edge.
Verdict: The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.93, but its own figures show a negative value edge of -5.8% and only 49% confidence, so this is not presented as a strong-value play. Bettors considering it should treat it as a moderate-risk selection and size stakes accordingly, keeping bankroll management in mind.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Ried | 2.60 | 3.42 | 2.53 |
| 10 Oct 17:30 | Austria Wien v Sturm Graz | 3.40 | 3.62 | 2.05 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Hartberg v Austria Lustenau | 2.33 | 3.40 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 15:00 | LASK v Rapid Wien | 1.80 | 3.84 | 3.94 |
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.29 | 5.80 | 8.75 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.05 | 5.30 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.01.
Rheindorf Altach are the market favourites at odds of 2.14, which implies roughly a 47% chance of winning, compared with about 29% for Grazer AK.
The draw is priced at 3.50, the same as a Grazer AK win, implying an approximate 29% probability for each outcome.
No clear value pick clears the site's threshold in the match-result market. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.93 is listed, but it carries a -5.8% value edge and only 49% model confidence, so it should not be viewed as a strong statistical edge.
The tip lost — final score 1-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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